After 16 Years in Power, Can Viktor Orban Finally Be Unseated?

Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, faced mounting pressure as the 12 April parliamentary election approached. His recent appearance at a rally in Györ revealed a shift in tone, with Orban accusing opponents of spreading negativity. “All they stand for is anger, hatred, and destruction,” he declared, his voice strained, contrasting with his usual composed demeanor.

Public opinion polls indicated a significant challenge for Orban’s Fidesz party. The latest survey showed the opposition Tisza party and its leader Peter Magyar leading with 58% support compared to Fidesz’s 35%. This marked a stark departure from earlier months, when 44% of respondents believed Fidesz would prevail, and 37% favored Tisza. By March, the numbers had flipped, with 47% predicting a Tisza victory and 35% backing Fidesz.

Orban has spent years positioning himself as a stabilizing force, yet his government now faces skepticism. Critics argue that his policies have created a perception of corruption, especially among younger voters. State contracts for infrastructure projects like bridges and stadiums are reportedly funneled to allies, including his son-in-law Istvan Tiborcz, who owns notable hotels, and Lörinc Meszaros, once a gas fitter, now the nation’s richest individual.

“We can notice a big change in public perception,” said Endre Hann of the Median agency. “If the remaining two weeks unfold like this, it does not bode well for the government side.”

Despite these accusations, Orban’s administration insists the wealth accumulation is a strategic move to protect national interests. However, he has yet to address personal ties to these projects, leaving opponents to question his integrity. Analysts like Zoltan Kiszelly from the government’s Szazadveg think tank dismiss the criticism, claiming it’s opposition propaganda.

Orban’s coalition, once backed by global figures like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, now contends with a wave of discontent. This reflects broader European sentiment against ruling elites, which has turned against him. Political commentator Gabor Török noted the erosion of Orban’s image: “This is not the ‘calm strength’ or ‘strategic calm’… image that was carefully cultivated for years.”

With just a week left, the race hinges on whether Orban can reframe the narrative. His rivals aim to convince rural voters—his traditional stronghold—that he can offer a more humane, functional vision for the country. Yet, whispers of a Russian-backed plan to stage a fake assassination attempt on him add urgency to the stakes.

Should Orban lose, the implications extend beyond Hungary. Michael Ignatieff, former rector of the Central European University, described Budapest as the “headquarters of illiberal democracy.” A defeat could signal a rejection of his authoritarian model, reshaping Europe’s political landscape.