Welsh NHS Faces Missed Targets Before Key Election

Official data due on Thursday may reveal that the Welsh government’s health goals are not fully realized, according to BBC Wales analysis. The targets, outlined by Health Secretary Jeremy Miles in April 2025, aimed to slash waiting lists by 200,000 and eliminate delays exceeding two years, while ensuring diagnostic test waits remain under eight weeks. Despite notable progress, the health service is expected to fall short of these objectives, with the final figures offering voters a critical insight into NHS Wales’ performance ahead of the 7 May election.

Challenges in Meeting Targets

Analysis highlights that achieving the first target—reducing waiting lists by 200,000—requires a record monthly drop in planned treatment waits, a feat not previously accomplished. Additionally, the second target faces hurdles due to persistent long waits in north Wales, where 69% of all two-year or more waits are concentrated within the Betsi Cadwaladr health board area. Swansea Bay, in contrast, reports no such cases.

“Tackling waiting lists is my number one priority,” Miles declared in April last year, vowing to bring the list down to pre-pandemic levels by March 2026. His pledge was supported by £120m in additional funding, allocated to expand outpatient services, diagnostic tests, and treatments, including over 20,000 cataract operations.

Provisional data released this week shows more than 48,000 patients waiting over eight weeks for diagnostic tests, surpassing the initial target of zero. This marks a 10,000 increase since the goal was set. The Labour government’s decision to publish provisional stats alongside official figures sparked claims from opposition parties that it sought to improve its image before the election. Miles defended the move, calling it a transparent strategy to inform the public.

Political Implications and Pledges

Health and social care comprise over half of the Welsh government’s £28bn budget, making it a top voter concern. While official waiting lists have decreased for eight consecutive months, they remain higher than pre-pandemic levels. The upcoming figures will be pivotal for all parties, as they compete to present the most compelling vision for the NHS.

Labour has faced criticism for missing 2022 targets in its Covid recovery plan. The party now aims to reduce 26-week waits by the end of the next Senedd term and propose a £4bn hospital building initiative. Conservatives promise a “health emergency” to clear backlogs by 2030, while Plaid Cymru pledges 10 new surgical hubs. Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth initially stated voters would not expect immediate changes, but later emphasized eradicating two-year waits within a year.