Global Food Crisis Looms as War Disrupts Fertiliser Supply

Fertiliser boss says war puts 10 billion – The ongoing conflict in the Gulf region has thrown global food production into uncertainty, with fertiliser shortages threatening to eliminate up to 10 billion meals per week, according to Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara, one of the world’s leading fertiliser manufacturers. Holsether highlighted how disruptions to the supply chain, particularly the blockage of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, are undermining the availability of critical fertiliser components. This, in turn, is creating a ripple effect across agricultural systems worldwide, with the most vulnerable populations bearing the brunt of the crisis.

Strait of Hormuz Blockage Sparks Fertiliser Shortages

Holsether warned that the hostilities in the Gulf have not only halted maritime traffic but also jeopardised the production and distribution of fertilisers essential for crop growth. The inability to transport raw materials such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium has forced some producers to scale back operations, resulting in a global shortfall of half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser. This decline in supply is expected to significantly reduce crop yields, particularly for staple foods like wheat, rice, and maize, which rely heavily on these nutrients.

“We’re up to half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser not being produced in the world right now because of the situation we are in,” Holsether stated. “What does that mean for food production? I would get to up to 10 billion meals that will not be produced every week as a result of the lack of fertilisers.”

Experts stress that the loss of fertiliser use could have far-reaching consequences, including a potential rise in global food prices and reduced availability. While the immediate effects may not be felt in all regions, the impact on developing nations is particularly severe, as they lack the financial resilience to absorb higher costs. Holsether urged European countries to consider the broader implications of their energy and trade policies, warning that the most vulnerable populations in other regions might end up paying the highest prices for basic foodstuffs.

Farming Challenges Escalate Amid Rising Costs

Global farmers are grappling with a complex web of challenges, as the prices they receive for their crops have yet to match the increased costs of production. Holsether explained that rising energy bills, including higher diesel prices for farm equipment, are squeezing farm incomes. Additionally, the cost of fertiliser has surged by 80% since the outbreak of the US and Israel’s war on Iran, further straining budgets. Farmers, he noted, are being asked to produce more with less, which could lead to a sharp decline in output.

“They’re faced with higher energy costs, diesel for a tractor is increasing, other inputs for the farmers are increasing, fertiliser cost is increasing, but yet the crop prices haven’t increased to the same extent yet,” Holsether said.

Without access to affordable fertilisers, the yield of certain crops could drop by as much as 50% in the coming growing season. This decline, combined with other factors such as climate variability and supply chain bottlenecks, could push food systems to the brink, especially in regions where agriculture is already under stress. Holsether’s concerns echo warnings from agricultural economists who have predicted that reduced fertiliser use will lead to a scramble for resources, potentially triggering a global food shortage.

Rising Fertiliser Prices Fuel Inflationary Pressures

The sharp increase in fertiliser costs has already begun to influence food prices, with experts anticipating further inflation in the months ahead. The Food and Drink Federation recently projected that food inflation could climb to 10% by year’s end, driven in part by the rising expenses for farmers. This trend, if sustained, could have a cascading effect on consumer prices, particularly for staple goods that form the foundation of diets in many developing countries.

According to Holsether, the conflict has created a scenario where richer nations might outbid poorer ones for limited food supplies, exacerbating inequality. “If there’s a bidding war on food and one that Europe is robust enough to handle, what we need to keep in mind in Europe is, okay, in that situation, who are we buying the food away from?” he added. “That is a situation where the most vulnerable people pay the highest price for this in developing nations where they cannot afford to follow that.”

This dynamic could lead to a tripling of food affordability issues, as governments in poorer countries struggle to secure enough resources to meet domestic demand. The Yara CEO also warned that the current economic model of food production may not be sustainable if the conflict continues, with long-term implications for global hunger and nutritional security.

UK Food Market Likely to Face Cost Increases

While the UK is not expected to experience food shortages in the near term, the increased production costs are poised to trickle down to consumers. Holsether noted that the UK’s agricultural sector, though resilient, is still vulnerable to the global price spikes caused by the fertiliser crisis. Producers are already feeling the strain, with input costs rising sharply and margins shrinking. As a result, households may see their weekly food bills increase, even if overall availability remains stable.

The UK’s situation highlights a broader trend: as the war in Iran continues, the effects on food production are becoming more pronounced. Analysts suggest that the nation’s food supply could become more expensive, forcing families to make difficult choices about what they can afford. This is particularly concerning for lower-income households, which are more sensitive to price fluctuations.

Broader Implications for Global Food Security

Yara’s CEO emphasized that the fertiliser crisis is more than a temporary setback—it is a significant threat to long-term food security. The world is currently dependent on a delicate balance of resources, and any disruption to the supply chain could have lasting consequences. For instance, a prolonged reduction in fertiliser use might force countries to shift toward less productive farming methods or rely on imports, which could be costly and unreliable.

Moreover, the crisis underscores the interconnectedness of global markets. A shortage in one region can quickly affect another, especially when supply chains are already stretched thin. Holsether’s remarks serve as a reminder that energy and geopolitical tensions can directly influence agricultural output, creating a domino effect that impacts millions of people worldwide.

Call for Global Cooperation to Mitigate Crisis

In light of these challenges, Holsether urged international cooperation to address the fertiliser shortage. He argued that a coordinated effort between governments, agricultural organisations, and energy producers could help stabilise food prices and ensure equitable access. This might involve targeted subsidies for developing nations, expedited shipping solutions, or diversifying sources of fertiliser production.

Meanwhile, consumers are being asked to brace for higher food prices. While the exact impact varies by region, the overall trend is clear: the war in Iran is disrupting the global supply of fertilisers, which are crucial for maintaining food production. Without swift action, the world could face a scenario where billions of meals are at risk, with the most vulnerable populations bearing the greatest burden.

As the conflict continues, the stakes for global food security are rising. Fertilisers are a cornerstone of modern agriculture, and their scarcity is pushing the world closer to a tipping point. Holsether’s warnings are a call to action, urging policymakers to prioritise food affordability and access, particularly in regions where the impact will be most severe. With food inflation projected to reach 10% by year-end, the coming months will be critical in determining whether the global food system can withstand the ongoing pressures.