Kenya Battles to Stop the ‘Goons and Guns’ as Fears of Political Violence Grow

Kenya battles to stop the goons – Last month, a quiet Wednesday in Kisumu, Kenya’s western city, turned violent when a group of hooded youths attacked Senator Godfrey Osotsi. The politician, who had just finished a haircut, stopped for coffee before the assault. The attackers pummeled and kicked him, seizing his phones and valuables before fleeing into the streets. The incident was recorded by CCTV, and within hours, the footage circulated widely across the nation. While the police are still investigating, Osotsi insists the attack was not a random robbery but a deliberate act of political aggression. He claims the assailants questioned him about his stance on President Uhuru Kenyatta’s re-election campaign, suggesting a clear motive tied to the political landscape.

A Pattern of Intimidation

The attack has reignited fears among Kenyans that political violence is once again becoming a staple of the country’s electoral process. For many, the incident felt less like an isolated event and more like a validation of long-standing concerns. Kenya’s history with politically motivated criminal groups dates back to the early 1990s, when multiparty democracy was reintroduced. Unemployed youths, often referred to as ‘goons,’ have been systematically recruited by politicians as tools for electoral intimidation. These groups, operating under the radar, have historically fueled unrest during critical political moments.

The 2007 election, which saw widespread violence, remains a stark example. At least 1,500 people were killed in that period, with gangs orchestrating attacks on opposition supporters and civilians. The current cycle, though still months away from the next national vote, is showing signs of escalating tension. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who was impeached and removed from government in 2024, is preparing to run for president, carrying a deep sense of grievance. This has intensified rivalries within key political factions, creating an environment ripe for violence.

Fragmented Alliances and Rising Tensions

Amid this backdrop, internal divisions within major parties are contributing to the political climate. One of the largest parties is currently split, with factions unable to agree on whether to back President William Ruto. This disunity has allowed hired youths to operate with increasing boldness, targeting politicians at public gatherings and rallies. The recent shooting of a 28-year-old man during a clash between police and supporters of an anti-Ruto faction in February underscores the volatility of the situation. The incident, which occurred at a rally, has been condemned as a “state-sponsored act of violence” by the opposition.

Interior Minister Kipchumba Murkomen acknowledged the government’s struggle to control these groups during a parliamentary session. He described them as having evolved from street-level enforcers into “sophisticated and decentralised networks.” Murkomen emphasized the role of political leaders in mobilizing these gangs, stating that their influence is a direct threat to national stability. “An irresponsible leader is a threat to national security,” he said, though he did not specify any individuals. The minister’s remarks highlight the growing recognition of the problem, even as authorities intensify efforts to crack down on the groups.

Over the past months, police have arrested more than 300 suspects linked to these criminal networks. Raids have uncovered weapons and communication devices, but no politicians have been detained yet. Despite these measures, successive governments have failed to eliminate the threat. The gangs have continued to adapt, rebranding and reappearing under new names with each electoral cycle. Their resilience is attributed to their well-organized structure, which allows them to operate efficiently and evade detection.

Accusations and Denials

Opposition leaders and civil society groups have accused the police of either collaborating with or overlooking organized gangs during political events. They argue that the violence often unfolds in the presence of law enforcement, suggesting a lack of neutrality. This has led to accusations that the police are complicit in state-sponsored attacks, a claim government officials have yet to fully address. Isaac Mwaura, the government spokesperson, dismissed reports of such collusion, stating that the use of criminal gangs to suppress political figures undermines democracy. “Anyone financing or supporting these acts will face full accountability,” he asserted, underscoring the administration’s commitment to action.

Meanwhile, Gachagua has become a prominent target of these networks. Since his impeachment, he has experienced repeated assaults by armed groups, including at least 24 attacks during church gatherings. His allies believe these incidents are designed to weaken his candidacy and disrupt his political movement. The former deputy president’s experience reflects a broader pattern of intimidation, where political rivals deploy violent tactics to silence dissent. This strategy has deep roots in Kenya’s history, where gangs have been used to influence public opinion and sway elections.

A Nation on Edge

The recent attack on Osotsi has galvanized public sentiment, with many Kenyans expressing unease about the return of political violence. Social media has amplified the outcry, with citizens sharing videos and testimonials that highlight the danger posed by these groups. Analysts warn that the current situation could mirror the chaos of 2007, when gangs targeted opposition supporters with impunity. The psychological impact of such attacks is significant, as they instill fear and erode trust in the electoral process.

Despite the government’s efforts, the problem persists. The police have launched a campaign to dismantle the gangs, but their effectiveness remains questionable. Some critics argue that the crackdown is too slow, while others suspect the police are still aligned with certain political interests. The Interior Minister’s acknowledgment of the gangs’ evolution into decentralized networks suggests a shift in perspective, but it also reveals the complexity of the issue. These groups are no longer just street-level threats; they have become organized entities with the backing of political elites.

As the next national election draws closer, the stakes are rising. The political realignment following Raila Odinga’s death in October 2023 has further fragmented alliances, creating new fault lines. Odinga’s ODM party split into two factions, each vying for influence in the upcoming contest. This division has allowed the goons to operate more freely, with attacks on politicians becoming a common feature of political discourse. The situation is compounded by the fact that the gangs are now more equipped and better coordinated, posing a significant challenge to electoral stability.

The government’s response to these threats has been mixed. While officials like Murkomen have admitted the gangs’ growing influence, they have not fully committed to rooting them out. The focus remains on immediate action, such as arrests and raids, rather than addressing the systemic factors that sustain these networks. For now, the battle continues between those who seek to use violence as a political tool and those who strive to maintain order. The outcome of this conflict will determine whether Kenya can avoid a repeat of its violent past or if the ‘goons and guns’ will once again shape the nation’s political future.

“The gangs are owned by political leaders who play a significant role in mobilising people. It is chaotic. An irresponsible leader is a threat to national security.”

In the face of rising tensions, Kenyans are left to navigate a landscape where political violence is both a weapon and a warning. The recent assault on Osotsi serves as a reminder that the threat is not just external but deeply embedded in the country’s political fabric. As the next election looms, the question remains: can the government and civil society prevent a return to the era of deadly political conflict that once defined Kenya’s democratic journey?