Some Iranians fear the regime is now more entrenched – and ready for revenge

Some Iranians fear the regime is now – Iranians are growing increasingly wary of their government’s grip on power. The regime’s dominance is evident in the constant visibility of its leaders, from the assassinated to the newly appointed. Whether walking through streets, driving through neighborhoods, or watching broadcasts, their faces loom large in public spaces. Protests have flared and faded, wars have erupted and paused, yet the Islamic Republic has not only survived but deepened its roots. Conversations with insiders reveal that the regime is stronger than ever, and its mood is one of retribution.

The Weight of Silence

For Sana and Diako, a young couple in Tehran, the regime’s resilience is both a fact and a frustration. Their middle-class lives, shaped by education and a desire for change, now feel overshadowed by the political climate. To share their perspectives, many details are withheld—personal traits, daily routines, even their own emotions. This is not a choice but a necessity. Any detail could be exploited by authorities to trace those who dare speak openly to foreign media.

From Hope to Despair

Sana and Diako met the BBC journalist in a Tehran park, a place where families typically gather. The ceasefire had brought a temporary calm, but it was hard to ignore the lingering tension. Diako clings to the belief that things will improve. “Things will change,” he insists, “it’s already changed.” Sana, however, reacts with skepticism. “Changed?” she questions, “the country is a mess. It’s in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards.”

Her sentiments reflect a shift in perspective. Initially, she had hoped the war would weaken the regime, but as the conflict dragged on, her optimism eroded. “At the beginning, I didn’t want the war to happen,” she recalls. “But when they were attacking key figures, I was happy to see them go.” The loss of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other leaders, she notes, did not bring the desired reforms. “Everything got worse,” she says. “I’m gutted that they won this war.”

Internal Conflict and Unrest

Across Iran, there is a growing sense of foreboding. The regime’s hold on society seems unshakable, but its tactics have intensified. Public demonstrations of loyalty are routine, while opposition gatherings are restricted. Our sources, ranging from activists to independent journalists, report a climate of anxiety. They fear that once the war ends, the government will retaliate more fiercely against dissent.

HRANA, a Washington-based human rights group, highlights the scale of repression. Over 53,000 arrests occurred during the anti-regime protests in January, and the war has only added to the numbers. A record 21 executions were carried out during the conflict, with nine linked to the protests and ten accused of opposing the regime. Two were charged with espionage. These figures underscore the regime’s determination to silence critics.

Fear and Division

Susan, a human rights lawyer, describes the harshening conditions in prisons. “Before the war, punishment was reserved for protest leaders, those with Molotovs, or armed rebels,” she explains. “Now, the brutality has escalated.” Her personal story reveals a family rift. Her parents, staunch supporters of the regime, worry about being targeted if the government falls. When she voiced this concern to her brother, an activist, his response was stark: “Since they want to be martyrs, why deny them that right?”

This divide is emblematic of a broader societal split. Many families are torn between loyalty to the state and the urge to resist. Susan, who wants the war to end, fears the regime will redirect its anger toward detainees. “If the war ends, they’ll take out their rage on prisoners,” she warns. “We’re living on borrowed time.” Her words echo the fears of others who see the current unrest as a prelude to a more aggressive crackdown.

Targeting the Press

Independent journalists face the risk of being labeled as state enemies. Armin, a Tehran-based reporter, recently shared his concerns. “They accuse us of helping the US or Israel,” he says. “Even if we just speak to foreign media, we’re seen as collaborators.” The regime’s strategy has shifted from public protests to targeting individuals through arrest and intimidation.

HRANA’s data shows the extent of this campaign. Four executions have taken place this year alone, with suspects accused of ties to the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency. The regime’s focus on political prisoners reflects a calculated effort to eliminate opposition. For journalists, this means not only facing imprisonment but also the possibility of being executed. The threat is real, and the stakes are high.

The Road Ahead

As the ceasefire continues, the question remains: how long can this fragile peace last? The regime’s consolidation of power suggests it is prepared to exact revenge on those who opposed it. For many Iranians, the war has not only tested their resilience but also exposed the regime’s capacity for brutality. The fear is not just of political retribution but of a new era of control, where dissent is met with swift and severe punishment.

Despite the hardships, some hope the regime will soften its stance. Diako believes in gradual change, while Susan remains cautious. “The regime is more entrenched now,” she says. “They won the war, and they’re ready to crush anyone who challenges them.” The voices of those inside Iran speak of a country in turmoil, where the balance of power has shifted, and the price of freedom is becoming steeper. As the war recedes, the struggle for Iran’s future will likely intensify, with the regime poised to reclaim its dominance through fear and force.