Analysis: Andy Burnham’s route back to the Commons is clearer – but one big hurdle remains

Andy Burnham’s Path to Parliament Gains Clarity, But Major Obstacle Lingers

Analysis: Andy Burnham’s route back to the Commons is clearer – but one big hurdle remains – With two key obstacles now removed, Andy Burnham’s path back to Parliament has become more defined. The recent resignation of a Labour MP has opened the door for the Greater Manchester mayor to pursue a parliamentary candidacy, a move previously blocked by Sir Keir Starmer. Last year, during the Gorton and Denton by-election, Starmer leveraged his control over the party’s National Executive Committee to prevent Burnham from standing. This time, however, Number 10 has signaled its willingness to let the former Labour leader run unopposed, a decision that appears to reflect shifting power dynamics within the party.

Timing is crucial for Burnham’s resurgence. In the past week, a notable portion of Labour’s membership, including high-profile figures like the health secretary and four cabinet ministers, has publicly called for the prime minister’s resignation. This collective dissent has weakened Starmer’s ability to act decisively, making it unlikely he would again obstruct Burnham’s return. As a result, the former mayor now finds himself in a stronger position to secure a parliamentary seat, though the ultimate challenge remains: can he prevail in the upcoming contest?

The By-Election Landscape

Burnham’s target constituency, Makerfield, has seen a dramatic shift in political fortunes. In recent local elections, Reform UK swept all 11 wards in the area, capturing a substantial share of the vote. This result highlights the challenges Labour faces in regions where its traditional support base is under pressure. Reform’s victory underscores the potential threat Burnham encounters, as the party has already declared its intent to fully mobilize resources in the by-election. Nigel Farage has explicitly stated that his team will “throw absolutely everything at it” to ensure a win.

Burnham’s supporters see this as an opportunity to reassert Labour’s dominance. They argue that his candidacy could serve as a catalyst for reshaping the party’s leadership and priorities. However, the prospect of a close race against Reform has sparked discussions about the broader implications for Labour’s unity. The internal conflict within the party, which has been simmering for months, may now find a temporary resolution as factions align behind Burnham’s campaign.

Labour’s Internal Truce

Josh Simons, the Labour MP for Makerfield stepping down to make way for Burnham, has emerged as an unexpected bridge between factions. Simons, known for his close ties to Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, represents a more centrist wing of the party. His decision to resign for Burnham has been praised as politically courageous, particularly by allies on the right who previously viewed Burnham as a potential threat. Simons’ alignment with the party’s right wing—given his past role in Labour Together, a think tank instrumental in supporting Sir Keir’s rise to leadership—adds nuance to the current situation.

Despite the internal truce, not all Labour members are in agreement. Luke Akehurst, a vocal advocate for the party’s right, has expressed frustration with leadership dynamics. He warned that the “internal game playing” could lead to a General Election within months, creating political instability that affects the economy and national security. “This level of internal game playing risks driving us into a General Election within months,” Akehurst stated, emphasizing concerns about Burnham’s campaign potentially undermining unity.

“It is disgraceful behaviour by both of them [Simons and Burnham]. We are the Labour Party. We are not about one person or ego.”

Yet, the majority of Labour’s leadership appears to have embraced Burnham’s candidacy. Lucy Powell, the Deputy Leader and a longstanding ally of Burnham, is set to publicly endorse him on Friday. She is expected to highlight his role in revitalizing the party’s strategy, stating, “Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner should all be key players in our team.” Powell’s support signals a broader acceptance of Burnham’s potential to unify Labour and refocus on electoral success.

Some within the party have already begun to see Burnham as a unifying figure. A former strategist noted that his campaign could be pivotal in addressing the leadership vacuum. “The only viable strategy for Burnham is to stand as the vehicle to remove Sir Keir from Downing Street,” the strategist remarked. This perspective reflects the belief that Burnham’s return could reshape the party’s direction, even if it means challenging the current leadership.