Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East’s reshuffling is not yet done

The ceasefire discussions currently taking place in Pakistan depend on the shared interests of the United States and Iran to pause the ongoing conflict. Yet, the primary challenge remains the lack of trust between the two nations, their divergent priorities, and the escalating actions of Israel, America’s key ally in the war. With the summer holiday season approaching, U.S. President Donald Trump is eager to conclude the war, seeking a swift resolution to align with his political calendar, including a state visit from King Charles in late April and a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in May. The midterm elections in November further pressure his administration to secure a favorable outcome.

Trump’s stated objective of a “quick victory” has already been tempered by the reality of the conflict. His declaration of success, however, has not quelled the need for an exit strategy. Meanwhile, Iran’s regime maintains its defiance, capable of launching missiles and drones despite significant losses. Social media campaigns, including AI-generated videos, continue to mock Trump, underscoring the nation’s resolve. Yet, the economic and military toll of the war has left Iran weakened, forcing it to seek diplomatic leverage through these talks.

“A capital V military victory,” as U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth remarked, remains a contested narrative. The war, ignited by U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28, has already reshaped regional dynamics. While Iran’s armed forces and infrastructure have suffered, the regime remains intact, demonstrating resilience that surprised Trump. The recent attack on Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, and his family did not trigger immediate collapse, as his son Mojtaba, now presumed as his successor, has been missing since the incident. Speculation suggests he was gravely injured in the strike.

The critical issue now centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage. Keeping it closed has allowed Iran to exert economic pressure on global markets, while reopening it becomes the focal point of negotiations. The U.S. and Israel, having targeted Iran’s military assets, now face the challenge of ensuring the waterway remains open. Meanwhile, millions of civilians across the Middle East hold out hope that these talks will mark the end of the conflict.

Despite the U.S. claiming victory, the war has not translated into strategic dominance. Iran’s ability to persist in the conflict, even without immediate agreement on broader terms, highlights the complexity of the situation. The talks in Pakistan, led by intermediaries, must navigate these starkly opposing positions. A durable ceasefire will require both sides to compromise, addressing unresolved tensions that have deepened over time.