Experts dispute US account of deadly Iran sports hall strike in Lamerd

On the first day of the conflict, a US claim that Iran might have carried out a deadly attack on Lamerd, a town in southern Iran, has been challenged by multiple weapons specialists. Six analysts, who independently reviewed video evidence of the strike, argued against the US identification, pointing to the missile’s visual characteristics, explosion pattern, flight path, and the number of impacts in the area.

Iranian authorities reported that 21 individuals, including four children, were killed in the strike. BBC Verify initially reported on the incident on 28 March, citing experts who suggested the missile could be a US Precision Strike Missile (PrSM). At the time, US Central Command (Centcom) did not provide comments. Later, Centcom issued a statement on 31 March, asserting the footage aligned with an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile.

“US forces do not target civilians, unlike the Iranian regime which has attacked civilian locations in neighboring countries more than 300 times,” the statement added.

When BBC Verify revisited Centcom with the analysis, the command stated it had “nothing to add” to its earlier claim. The verified CCTV footage, published by Iranian state media and authenticated by BBC Verify, showed a projectile moments before it exploded above a residential zone. Experts initially linked it to a US missile, citing its size, the blast’s scale, and proximity to possible US launch sites in the Middle East.

Three analysts from Janes, a defense intelligence firm, and a specialist from McKenzie Intelligence all indicated the missile resembled a PrSM. The US Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, confirmed the incident was under investigation, reaffirming that US forces “never target civilian targets.”

On the same day, nearly 400 kilometers to the east, strikes hit an Iranian school and a military base in Minab, resulting in 168 deaths, according to Iranian officials. Video analysis suggests a US Tomahawk missile targeted the military compound. However, Centcom later claimed the footage supported the Hoveyzeh missile.

“After looking into the reports, U.S. Central Command has confirmed the accusations are false,” said US Navy Capt Tim Hawkins.

Analysts from Janes noted the Hoveyzeh missile has a turbojet engine and mid-body wings, which should be visible regardless of viewing angle. “None of those features are clearly shown in the footage,” one expert stated. Meanwhile, another specialist from McKenzie Intelligence claimed the missile in the video lacked wings or an external engine, with “canard fins” typical of a PrSM visible instead.

“Crucially, no matter the angle from which the missile is viewed from, the wings and the turbo jet would be visible. None of that is clearly distinguishable from the footage,” said Amael Kotlarski.

Trevor Ball, a weapons expert at Bellingcat, added on X that the missile’s length was “much more consistent with the PrSM” than a Hoveyzeh. “The Hoveyzeh silhouette is also much different, with wings and a visible engine depending on angle,” he remarked.

Despite the low-resolution footage, the mid-air explosion is clearly captured, aligning with the airburst capability of a PrSM. This feature disperses fragments over a broader area, a trait observed in advanced missile systems. The debate over the weapon’s origin continues as experts highlight discrepancies between the strike and the US or Iranian missile models.