Israel’s perpetual war with Iran may be hard to win with military might alone

Along the route from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, American flags now stand beside Israeli ones—a visible tribute to U.S. support in the fight against Iran. Tzachi Hangebi, former Israeli National Security Advisor, reflected on this shift, noting that prior to the war, Israel relied on U.S. administrations to acknowledge a “credible military threat.” He remarked, “The collaboration between Israel and the U.S. to reduce Iran’s capabilities is more than I ever imagined.”

With the U.S. joining the campaign against Iran, Israel gained new tactical opportunities to strike its adversaries. Officials now coordinate with American forces, leveraging their strengths to target Iran’s infrastructure. Yet, the war has not resolved Israel’s broader regional challenges as Prime Minister Netanyahu had promised. As President Trump hinted at scaling back the joint effort, Israeli troops remain in occupied areas of Gaza and Syria, with fresh orders to expand into southern Lebanon as a defensive measure.

The new “security zone” in southern Lebanon displaces approximately 600,000 residents, who are barred from returning home until Israeli authorities declare their northern areas safe from Hezbollah threats. Defense Minister Mr. Katz has ordered the demolition of Lebanese villages near the border, mirroring tactics used in Gaza. Despite this, Hangebi insists Israel will persist in its direct engagement with regional foes like Hezbollah, even if the U.S. halts military operations in Iran.

“Whatever Trump decides—whether to end the campaign or pause it—we’ll accept. But we’ll keep advancing in Lebanon,” Hangebi stated.

According to Lebanon’s Health Ministry, over 1,200 civilians have died in the country since Israel’s latest offensive. Iran claims nearly 2,000 casualties from U.S.-Israel strikes since the war began. The conflict has reshaped Israel’s regional strategy, shifting from periodic strikes to a proactive approach of establishing buffer zones. These zones, in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon, are meant to secure Israeli borders, but critics argue they reflect a failure to achieve lasting peace through military force.

Analysts highlight a key transformation in Israel’s security doctrine after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks. The country moved from a containment strategy to one of preemptive strikes. While this has intensified pressure on Iran, it has also entrenched prolonged conflict. Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East strategy expert at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, explained that buffer zones are seen as a strategic buffer, offering time and flexibility. However, she noted internal debates over their long-term goals.

Some Israeli leaders view the buffer zones as a path to permanent occupation, aligning with far-right ideology. Others see them as temporary security measures that could be reversed once the threat is deemed manageable. Netanyahu, who has led the nation in a sustained campaign against Iran and its allies for over two years, continues to frame the war as a step toward victory. Yet, for many Israelis, the reality is a state of ongoing conflict.

Dahlia Scheindlin, a political analyst, observed that the promises of defeating Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran have not materialized. The cycle of war and rhetoric persists, leaving the population in a state of “perma-war.” As the conflict evolves, the balance between military action and political strategy remains uncertain.