Ships still cautious about using Strait of Hormuz as Iran issues warning

Strait of Hormuz as Key Strategic Point

The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a central battleground in the ongoing US-Israel standoff with Iran. By effectively blocking a critical global shipping route, Tehran has disrupted the flow of essential resources, including roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. This strategic move has created significant ripple effects across the global economy, heightening energy prices and underscoring the vulnerability of international trade networks to the strait’s security status.

Ceasefire’s Limited Impact

A two-week truce was brokered on Tuesday evening, contingent on ensuring “safe passage” through the waterway. However, BBC Verify’s analysis reveals minimal movement in the days following the agreement. Only three tankers—NJ Earth, Daytona Beach, and Hai Long 1—have traversed the strait since the ceasefire took effect, according to tracking data from MarineTraffic. Previously, an average of 138 vessels crossed daily, highlighting the stark contrast in activity levels.

Analyst Concerns

Despite the ceasefire, shipping experts remain wary. “Most shipping lines would prefer to have clear guidelines on transit procedures, which are still unclear,” says Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime. The Iran navy has issued warnings that vessels crossing without authorization will face targeting. This uncertainty has left many operators hesitant, with Ana Subasic from Kpler noting that it is unclear whether the recent crossings reflect a broader reopening or isolated exceptions.

Route Adjustments and Priorities

BBC Verify’s tracking data indicates the three vessels took a northern route near Iran’s coast, entering its territorial waters. This contrasts with the usual mid-waterway path. Richard Meade of Lloyd’s List adds that the ceasefire has not yet translated into widespread confidence, emphasizing the “dangerous” environment for ship owners. “Iran retains control of the strait, and the process for securing passage remains opaque,” he explains.

Meanwhile, the two-week window has raised questions about long-term stability. Niels Rasmussen of BIMCO suggests a cautious approach, as operators fear being stranded after the agreement expires. Thomas Kazakos, secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping, highlights the need for confirmed navigational safety. “We must ensure the seafarers’ and ships’ safety is agreed upon,” he states.

Remaining Challenges

Additional complexities include potential tolls for passage, as reports indicate Iran may demand payments as part of the ceasefire deal. “Shipping lines will be reluctant to pay unless guarantees are solid,” Jensen cautions. Some nations like India, Malaysia, and the Philippines have secured permissions for their vessels, but others face the risk of violating US sanctions if they comply with Iranian tolls.

“Nothing has really changed yet,” says Jensen, noting that crews require time to feel secure. “The assumption is that permission from the IRGC is still necessary, and how that will be handled remains uncertain.”

As the situation unfolds, the focus remains on the safety of ships and the viability of the ceasefire. Analysts warn that the strait’s future depends on resolving these lingering concerns, even as a small number of vessels attempt to navigate its waters.