Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?

Event Details

The Grand National, held at Aintree, is a cornerstone of British horse racing. However, its 34 runners make predicting the outcome a challenging task. BBC Sport examines historical data to explore whether patterns can offer clues for the 2026 edition.

Odds and Trends

From 2000 to 2025, the race has seen 25 renewals. The most recent winner, Nick Rockett, had odds of 33-1 in 2025, while Mon Mome triumphed at 100-1 in 2009. Tiger Roll, in 2019, became the first back-to-back victor since Red Rum in the 1970s, finishing at 4-1. The average odds for winners this century have remained around 24-1, though the last decade has shown a drop, with five instances of winners priced at 11-1 or lower.

Weight Analysis

Winners of the past 25 races have consistently carried weights between 10st 3lb and 11st 9lb. This range could narrow the focus, as the top six horses in the 2026 field are unlikely to match this trend. Notably, 11st 6lb has produced three victories, and the average weight of past winners falls within 10st 12lb to 10st 13lb.

Age and Experience

Recent years have seen a trend favoring horses aged eight or nine. Since 2014, no competitor aged 10 or older has won, and in 2022, Noble Yeats became the first seven-year-old victor since Bogskar in 1940. Over the last decade, six eight-year-olds and three nine-year-olds have claimed the title, with Tiger Roll returning to win again in 2019 at the age of seven.

Jockeys and Trainers

Trainers like Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have shaped recent success, with Mullins training the 2025 winner and Elliott having four top-five finishes in the past decade. Jockeys such as Paul Townend, who secured a place in 2024, have also shown consistency. I Am Maximus, the 2024 winner, is likely to be a key contender in 2026, joining a field where top weights may face hurdles.

In short, no.

Official Ratings

Handicappers assign ratings to each horse, reflecting their performance level. Of the 16 previous editions, 14 winners were rated 146 or higher, with 13 falling between 146 and 160. I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett, the 2025 champion, were rated 159 and 163 respectively before the race.

Conclusion

The Grand National remains a test of endurance and unpredictability, featuring unique challenges compared to other races. While some trends exist, such as the preference for younger horses or specific weights, no single factor guarantees success. This year’s field, with 16 horses trained by Mullins, Elliott, and others, will require a mix of luck and analysis to identify the likely victor.