Fact check: Orban points to Ukraine over pipeline bomb

During Easter, Serbian authorities uncovered two backpacks filled with explosives and detonators near a critical gas pipeline that delivers Russian gas through the Balkans to Hungary. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic shared the discovery on Instagram, stating, “Our units found an explosive of devastating power.”

Orban’s Accusation

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto swiftly linked the incident to Ukrainian actions. In an Instagram video on April 5, Szijjarto claimed,

“The Ukrainians organized an oil blockade against us, then tried to put us under a total energy blockade by firing dozens of drones at the TurkStream pipeline while it was still on Russian territory. Now there is today’s incident, where Serbian colleagues found explosives sufficient to blow up the pipeline next to the TurkStream pipeline.”

Orban further asserted,

“We reject in the strongest possible terms this latest attack on our sovereignty, because an attack on the security of our energy supply cannot be interpreted as anything other than an attack on our sovereignty.”

Serbian Investigation

Despite Orban’s insinuations, Serbian investigators have dismissed any Ukrainian connection to the explosives. Duro Jovanic, head of the Serbian Military Security Agency (VBA), stated in a press conference,

“It is not true that Ukrainians tried to organize this sabotage.”

The bombs were located a few hundred meters from the TurkStream pipeline, which provides over half of Hungary’s gas supply. Officials noted the materials were originally manufactured in the U.S., but this alone does not confirm the perpetrator.

Timing and Political Context

Ukraine denied involvement, with a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs writing on X,

“We categorically reject attempts to falsely link Ukraine to the incident with explosives found near the Turkstream pipeline in Serbia. Ukraine has nothing to do with this. Most probably, it is a Russian false-flag operation as part of Moscow’s heavy interference in Hungarian elections.”

The discovery occurred just six days before Hungary’s elections on April 12, a period when Orban’s ruling party Fidesz is trailing the opposition Tisza in opinion polls.

Foreseen Attack

Months prior, Hungarian intelligence officials had anticipated an energy infrastructure attack blamed on Ukraine. In February, security analyst Andras Racz published a fictional scenario on Facebook detailing a Russian-led false-flag operation targeting the Druzhba pipeline, which transports oil from Russia through Ukraine into Hungary. Three days before the explosives were found, Racz updated his post to specify the TurkStream pipeline in Serbia as the target.

Strained Relations

Hungary’s reliance on Russian oil—93% of its supply—has fueled tensions with Ukraine, particularly over energy infrastructure. The pipeline incident has added to these frictions, with Ruy, a Europe and Russia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, calling the timing a sign of “desperation.”