How Pakistan brokered a US-Iran ceasefire, and what’s next

A two-week pause in hostilities has been reached between the US, Israel, and Iran following mediation by Pakistan’s leadership. The agreement marks a significant breakthrough for Islamabad, though the path to a lasting resolution is expected to be more intricate. The ceasefire was announced by US President Donald Trump, who credited Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif with proposing the truce. Trump stated the arrangement would involve suspending attacks on Iran, contingent on the country agreeing to fully and safely reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistan’s strategic role

Trump’s statement on Truth Social came just before a self-imposed deadline, during which he had previously warned of potential consequences for Iran. “Pakistan positioned itself as a reliable intermediary during a critical escalation phase,” said Raja Qaiser Ahmed, a Quaid-e-Azam University expert. “It facilitated secret talks, provided guarantees to both Washington and Tehran, and aligned immediate priorities around reducing conflict.” Ahmed emphasized that Pakistan’s success lay in its ability to coordinate, not coerce, creating a stepping stone for broader dialogue.

Prime Minister Sharif and army chief Asim Munir have cultivated strong ties with Trump since May, when a brief but intense military clash between Pakistan and India occurred. The US leader later claimed credit for ending the hostilities, though the ceasefire’s success hinges on Iran’s actions. Pakistan’s relationship with Tehran remains complex, balancing cooperation with strategic interests.

Challenges ahead

Despite the progress, uncertainty looms over the ceasefire’s durability. “The negotiations will be tough, but this pause is a positive start,” noted Zahid Hussain, a political analyst. “The real test is whether Iran and the US are genuinely committed to peace.” Tehran’s skepticism of Washington, compounded by Trump’s domestic pressures, raises concerns about the agreement’s stability. Meanwhile, Israel has accepted the truce while continuing operations in Lebanon, according to Hussain.

Trump described Iran’s proposal as a “workable basis for negotiation,” claiming most disputes had been resolved. However, the critical condition—reopening the Strait of Hormuz—remains unmet, as the Iranian regime had previously closed it after US and Israeli strikes in February. “The ceasefire’s future depends on Hormuz’s passage,” said Hussain, highlighting the fragile nature of the deal.

“Pakistan will aim to sustain this momentum and secure a more permanent accord before the window closes,” said Elizabeth Threlkeld of the Stimson Center. “This pause offers a chance to reduce tensions and explore lasting solutions.”

Prime Minister Sharif has invited US and Iranian delegations to Islamabad for further talks, signaling optimism. Yet, the road to a permanent settlement between the US, Israel, and Iran remains uncertain. Whether the ceasefire leads to broader stability will depend on the willingness of all parties to compromise and address deeper mistrust.