Hungary gears up for a historic election

Hungary’s upcoming parliamentary vote on April 12 is poised to become the most pivotal since the collapse of the communist system in 1989/90. This election carries profound implications not only for the nation but also for the European Union’s future. DW delves into several critical aspects of the contest.

A turning point for the EU and its alliances

For the first time since 2010, the opposition has a genuine chance to unseat Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The conservative Tisza party, led by his primary rival Peter Magyar, could secure victory, marking a potential shift in Hungary’s political landscape. The outcome may shape the EU’s direction, influencing its resilience against external pressures, particularly from Russia.

Experts classify Hungary as a “hybrid system,” existing in a liminal space between democracy and dictatorship.

Orban’s tenure has seen the consolidation of power, with Fidesz reshaping Hungary’s institutions. After his 2010 landslide, he introduced a system of national cooperation, reorganizing the judiciary, administration, and civil service. This has led to an ultra-centralized state, where government control extends to media outlets, universities, and public assets. Critics argue this system undermines checks and balances, favoring Fidesz’s agenda.

Despite his policies benefiting the upper-middle class, Orban’s leadership has sparked discontent over rising costs, declining infrastructure, and pervasive corruption. His rhetoric, such as labeling Ukraine as a “villain” in the Russia conflict or casting opponents as “traitors,” has intensified public frustration. These dynamics could sway voters in a decisive way.

The election’s structure plays a role in the result. Fidesz’s electoral reforms, introduced post-2010, emphasize a first-past-the-post system. This gives the party an advantage, as smaller constituencies require fewer votes to secure seats. In the 2022 vote, Orban’s party achieved 53% of the popular vote but claimed nearly 68% of parliamentary seats, reinforcing its dominance.

Hungarian citizens abroad face distinct voting conditions. Those in Western Europe can only cast ballots at embassies and consulates, unlike their counterparts in neighboring countries who have access to absentee voting. This disparity has fueled accusations of electoral unfairness, though many remain skeptical about challenges to the current system.

Orban’s vision for the EU centers on reducing its influence, aiming to transform it into a coalition of economically aligned nation-states. His repeated vetoes and opposition to key decisions have weakened the bloc’s cohesion. A Fidesz victory would likely further erode EU unity, while a change in government could revitalize its collective strength. Hungary’s proximity to Russia also positions it as a critical player in shaping the bloc’s stance on international relations.