Iran War: How Long Can Tehran’s Asymmetric Strategy Hold?

Years of sanctions and weeks of US-Israeli bombings have left the Iranian regime weakened, yet it retains the ability to pose a regional threat. Despite these pressures, the country continues to challenge global energy flows by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil exports. US President Donald Trump asserted in a recent speech that “regime change has occurred” in Iran, claiming the nation is “on track to fulfill all its objectives very soon.” He highlighted the unprecedented scale of losses Iran has endured, stating, “Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks.”

US and Israeli forces have targeted Iran’s conventional military assets, including its navy, air force, and advanced weaponry. Trump revealed that 13,000 Iranian targets have been struck since the strikes began on February 28. Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Forces reported destroying 80% of Iran’s air defense systems while dismantling key defense production sites. Though the regime faces significant damage, it remains resilient, launching counterstrikes and maintaining strategic coordination.

Iran’s leadership has been under siege, with senior figures and security forces targeted in relentless attacks. Former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, though deceased, has left his son Mojtaba in charge. However, Mojtaba’s absence from public view has fueled speculation about his health and location. As the conflict intensifies, the US and Israel continue to erode Iran’s conventional capabilities, but experts argue its asymmetric tactics remain a formidable asset.

“The persistent degradation of Iranian military capabilities via US and Israeli airstrikes has absolutely limited Iran’s retaliatory options. That said, this regime has proven masterful at implementing asymmetric warfare and has had decades to plan for this scenario,” said Jason H. Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

Iran’s asymmetric strategy emerged as a necessity during the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when the US imposed an arms embargo. Following a brutal eight-year war with Iraq, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) refined this approach into a structured doctrine. The regime began developing affordable, domestically produced missiles and drones, which can be mass-produced and deployed rapidly. These systems, like the Shahed series, cost between $20,000 and $50,000 and have a range of 2,000 kilometers. They are now central to Iran’s ability to project force.

Iran’s current asymmetric arsenal includes attack drones, cyberwarfare capabilities, and militant proxy networks. These tools are sustained by oil revenues, allowing Tehran to supply energy to nations like China while bypassing US sanctions. “Iran seems capable of sustaining a credible asymmetric threat for an extended period of time,” noted Kelly A. Grieco, a strategic analyst at the Stimson Center. She emphasized that while Iran’s conventional air force and navy have been severely weakened, its drone threat remains a durable component of its warfare approach.

Historically, Iran’s survival tactics have relied on international isolation and proxy forces. Narges Bajoghli, an Iranian-American anthropologist, highlighted that this strategy was forged in the 1979 revolution and has evolved over decades. Even as the US and Israel target Iran’s military infrastructure, the regime continues to leverage its network of allies and insurgents to maintain influence in the region.

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