Is Iraq being dragged into the Iran war?

This week, a substantial Iraqi convoy entered Iran, sparking concerns about its potential role in Iran’s conflict with the US and Israel. However, analysts argue the situation is more intricate than a simple military alignment. A significant group of trucks, reportedly carrying Iraqi personnel, was captured on video crossing the southern border into Iran. While the mission was framed as humanitarian, there were indications that some members of the convoy belonged to a paramilitary group linked to Iran.

Perceptions as a Strategic Tool

Experts suggest the convoy’s purpose may lie in shaping regional narratives rather than direct military involvement. “Even if fighters are included, their presence is unlikely to shift the war’s dynamics much,” said Hayder al-Shakeri, a researcher at Chatham House. Omar al-Nidawi of the US-based Enabling Peace in Iraq (EPIC) added, “Iran doesn’t need Iraqi troops for this war. The convoy is more about projecting power and instilling fear among US allies.”

“One of the things that has been working for Iran in terms of leverage is this threat of expanding the war and increasing the pain and chaos for the US and its allies. The image of this convoy is a show of force along these lines,” al-Nidawi explained.

Analysts note that the true challenge comes from within Iraq. The paramilitary force involved, part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), has grown to nearly 238,000 members since its formation in 2014. Initially created to counter ISIS, the PMF now operates as a formal part of Iraq’s military, with government-paid personnel. Yet, some factions within the group are closely tied to Iran, forming the so-called “axis of resistance” that includes Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

Escalation and Retaliation

Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, the “axis of resistance” in Iraq launched attacks targeting US and European facilities, as well as civilian infrastructure like oil fields and hotels. These actions have led to US bombings of PMF strongholds, a move previously avoided. The Iraqi government recently convened an emergency session, ordering arrests of those attacking security institutions and civilian sites, while simultaneously granting the PMF broader authority to defend itself.

“Effectively, this decision makes Iraq a belligerent in the current regional war, holding it responsible for actions taken by PMF factions under self-defense claims,” noted Mohammed Salih of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Meanwhile, a recent incident in Baghdad highlights Iraq’s security challenges. Shelley Kittleson, a journalist from Al Monitor, was kidnapped in central Baghdad on Tuesday. After her captors’ vehicle crashed, the driver was detained, but Kittleson remains missing. Such events underscore the complex tensions within Iraq, where domestic forces and external actors continue to influence the conflict’s trajectory.