Middle East War: Few Solutions to Fuel Shortages in Africa

Africa is grappling with a growing fuel crisis, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. As tensions escalate between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, fuel prices have surged, creating challenges for nations across the continent. With the war entering its second month, African countries are racing to maintain their energy supply, but the situation remains precarious.

East Africa’s Struggles

In Kenya, about 20% of fuel supplies have disappeared from petrol stations, attributed to widespread panic buying. The country usually keeps reserves covering two to three weeks of demand, underscoring its dependence on steady imports and vulnerability to global supply fluctuations. Meanwhile, Tanzania has seen pump prices rise by over 30%, reminiscent of the surge during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Existing stockpiles are expected to last another month, hinting at further price increases.

Regional Disruptions

Across the Tigray region in Ethiopia, fuel deliveries have been halted entirely, raising fears of renewed civil unrest. The government has directed suppliers to prioritize energy for state projects and key industries, leaving local populations to endure shortages. In South Sudan, despite holding significant oil reserves, the nation faces a challenge: its limited refining capacity means it relies heavily on imported refined products for both energy and electricity.

Global Implications

Attiya Waris, a UN expert on foreign debt and human rights, warns that the crisis could worsen. “Most African countries still have only 40% electricity coverage,” she said in an interview with DW. “Even those connected to the grid face the risk of electricity shortages as demand rises.” Waris highlighted the oil-for-debt trend, noting that many African nations are compelled to export crude to meet financial obligations, leaving domestic industries struggling.

Efforts to Mitigate

Nigeria, Africa’s top oil producer, is working to boost refining capacity through its state-run facilities and the private Dangote Refinery near Lagos. However, years of underinvestment have left the state infrastructure fragile. While Dangote increases output, Nigeria continues exporting raw oil and importing processed fuel, limiting its ability to address shortages. Similarly, Angola faces constraints due to the same geopolitical dynamics.

African Responses

South Africa has taken a step toward addressing the issue, with its coalition government temporarily uniting to tackle rising fuel costs. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration agreed to reduce levies on fuel, a move supported by the Democratic Alliance. Yet, the finance minister from the ruling African National Congress cautioned that this decision might be too soon, given recent budget approvals. The country now watches closely as the war’s long-term effects unfold.