How two ceasefires and opening of Hormuz could boost Iran talks

The Middle East is witnessing two simultaneous ceasefires, raising hopes for significant diplomatic progress. Though both are described as fragile, they mark a pivotal moment as the echoes of conflict fade. This pause offers a unique chance to reshape regional dynamics, even as tensions linger.

Last night’s announcement of a 10-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed group, signals a strategic win for Tehran. The Iranian regime had insisted on a ceasefire in Lebanon, arguing that peace talks with the U.S. could not advance without it. With the agreement in place, Iran swiftly declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open, a move seen as symbolic of its growing influence.

While the ceasefire appears to benefit Iran, it has sparked frustration among Israelis near the northern border. They accuse Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of yielding to American pressure, fearing Hezbollah’s continued ability to launch attacks. “The ceasefire effectively legitimizes the link between Iran and Lebanon’s conflict,” writes Shirit Avitan Cohen in Israel Hayom. “Hezbollah now has confirmation that its master still controls regional affairs.”

Despite the pause, all parties seem to gain. For U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran’s leadership, it’s a chance to claim credit for de-escalation. Netanyahu points to Israeli troops remaining in southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese government finally engages in direct talks with its neighbor. Hezbollah, however, maintains its stance, vowing to uphold the ceasefire but refusing to disarm until key conditions are met.

Senior Hezbollah leader Wafiq Safa told the BBC that weapons removal is conditional on Israeli withdrawal and the return of prisoners and displaced people. “Until then, it is not possible to discuss Hezbollah’s disarmament,” he emphasized. Meanwhile, Lina Khatib of Chatham House notes that while talks continue, the path to peace remains fraught with challenges: border demarcation, Hezbollah’s disarming, and Israel’s territorial pullback.

Although Iran and Lebanon are still intertwined in conflict, Khatib argues that recent direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington are beginning to weaken Iran’s grip. “The regional balance of power is shifting,” she states. “Lebanon is no longer a pawn for Tehran.” Yet, the outcome hinges on the next phase of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Reducing Iran’s regional aggression, including its support for groups like Hamas and the Houthis, will be central to these discussions.

For Israel, curbing Iranian backing of militant groups is crucial. The Jewish state has long been under threat from Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” However, Iran will not relinquish its leverage easily. The fate of its nuclear program and the future of Hormuz remain formidable hurdles, with Trump insisting a deal is “very close.”