Unhappy Labour MPs aren’t ready to oust Starmer yet

Labour faces mounting pressure as poll numbers decline and the party’s trajectory appears uncertain. The prime minister’s personal approval ratings have hit rock bottom, compounding concerns over potential electoral setbacks. Foreseeing challenges ahead, Labour is poised to lose its grip on Wales, see a reduction in English councillors, and experience a reversal in Scotland. These troubles have intensified since the controversial appointment of Lord Mandelson as U.S. ambassador, followed by the dismissal of Sir Olly Robbins over security vetting disputes.

Despite these difficulties, no formal leadership contest is imminent. The question now is why not, especially after the anticipated electoral loss on 8 May? One MP, Jonathan Brash, has publicly urged Sir Keir Starmer to step down, with others sharing similar sentiments privately. However, the absence of open support for Brash’s call suggests a cautious approach within the party. As one veteran Labour member noted, “Keir Starmer is basically dead, isn’t he? And because people think it is inevitable he won’t lead us into the next election, there isn’t the rush.”

A Growing ‘Stop Ange’ Sentiment

Some MPs are questioning Angela Rayner’s suitability as a leader. While she remains a prominent figure, there is a rising perception that she might not secure victory in the next election. A progressive MP highlighted her financial ties and “lucrative speaking engagements” as factors undermining her credibility. Meanwhile, others pointed to the PLP’s belief that the party’s crisis is terminal, though this view has persisted since February.

“The PLP thinks the situation is terminal – but we have thought that since February. We don’t have an option in Wes [Streeting] because of the Mandelson thing – despite his data dump of the text messages with him.”

The leadership dilemma is further complicated by the absence of a clear successor. A senior Labour figure reflected on the fallout from Mandelson’s appointment, noting, “We will tank in the elections. But we are back where we were a week ago. There is no easy mechanism (to remove a leader) and there is no obvious candidate.”

Burnham as a Potential Candidate

Andy Burnham remains a name whispered among MPs as a possible leader-in-waiting. Although he was barred from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year, his potential return is seen as a viable solution. One former frontbencher stated, “The problem is that the solution isn’t in Westminster. They were, of course, talking about Andy Burnham, who was blocked from contesting.”

“He is the person who just about everyone could live with – unless you are Wes Streeting.”

Burnham’s candidacy, however, would require strategic support. He would need to stand in a “very safe seat,” with a backing MP stepping aside. Approval from the National Executive could also sway the situation, though one MP argued that Starmer’s decision to block Burnham’s run was politically sound. “If Andy had been back (in Westminster) things would have moved by now,” they said.

Meanwhile, some MPs are adopting a more resigned stance. A minister admitted, “Starmer is seriously unpopular. I think we are going to lose the next election. The only way we win is if people feel better off, and I have not heard a serious argument from any possible candidate about how they could achieve that in such a short space of time.”