How climate change threatens the economic backbone of the Pacific
How Climate Change Threatens the Economic Backbone of the Pacific
How climate change threatens the economic – Kiribati, a nation of scattered islands in the heart of the Pacific Ocean, has long depended on the ocean for its survival. More than half of the world’s tuna is harvested from this vast expanse, with the country’s territorial waters playing a pivotal role in the global fishery. While its landmass is minuscule—equivalent to the size of New York City—the nation controls an expansive Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) stretching over 3.4 million square kilometers. This area, divided into three distinct regions surrounding the Gilbert, Phoenix, and Line island groups, is larger than India and brimming with marine life, including skipjack, yellowfin, and bigeye tuna. For Kiribati, this underwater territory is not just a resource but a lifeline.
The Revenue of the Sea
The government of Kiribati earns a staggering portion of its income from granting fishing licenses to foreign fleets. Over 70% of its annual revenue stems from this practice, making it the most reliant nation on tuna exports in the world. In 2024, the country generated $137 million from these licenses, a figure that underscores their economic significance. “This income is a critical financial lifeline,” states Riibeta Abeta, the permanent secretary for Kiribati’s Ministry of Fisheries. Abeta notes that between 2018 and 2022, fishing licenses accounted for nearly 75% of the government’s total earnings, representing roughly two-fifths of the nation’s GDP, as per the International Monetary Fund.
“Next time you go into the supermarket and you look at the cans of tuna, five-and-a half cans out of 10 stacked up are coming from the Western Central Pacific Ocean [including Kiribati],” says Simon Diffey, a fisheries specialist with over three decades of experience in the region. Diffey highlights that Kiribati and Papua New Guinea are the primary players in the Pacific tuna market. However, he points out that Papua New Guinea’s larger landmass and access to physical resources give it an advantage in diversifying its economy, whereas Kiribati’s reliance on the sea leaves it vulnerable to environmental shifts.
The economic model of Kiribati hinges on the stability of its marine ecosystems. Yet, this stability is now under threat due to rising sea temperatures. Climate change is causing the Pacific Ocean’s surface waters to warm, prompting tuna species to migrate toward cooler areas in the east. This shift could diminish the availability of tuna in Kiribati’s EEZ, directly impacting the demand for its fishing licenses. Scientists warn that such a permanent relocation of fish stocks may reduce the number of international vessels needing to operate within Kiribati’s waters, creating uncertainty in the country’s revenue streams.
The global tuna market, valued at over $44 billion annually, is a cornerstone of international trade. To fish in Kiribati’s domain, foreign fleets must secure a license, adhere to catch limits, and report their hauls. These licenses are predominantly purchased by countries like Japan, China, the United States, and European Union members. However, the changing climate could disrupt this delicate balance. If greenhouse gas emissions remain high, Kiribati’s Ministry of Fisheries predicts a potential loss of more than $10 million in fishing access fees by 2050. This projection comes from preliminary models, which show a decline in tuna biomass within the nation’s EEZ under such scenarios.
Despite these challenges, the impact of climate change extends beyond financial concerns. Local fishermen in Kiribati are expected to experience reduced catches regardless of emission levels, according to the Pacific Community, a regional development organization. This dual threat—both to foreign fleets and domestic fishermen—highlights the precarious nature of the nation’s economy. The Line Islands, in particular, are anticipated to suffer the most, with estimates suggesting a loss of two-thirds of their tuna stocks even under a low-emission scenario.
As the climate crisis accelerates, Kiribati’s population of approximately 130,000 is projected to grow, driven by rapid urbanization. The capital, Tarawa, is already witnessing increased pressure on limited land and resources. This demographic shift, coupled with the decline in local fish stocks, raises alarms about food security. Tuna, which is a primary source of protein for many Kiribati residents, may become scarcer, forcing the community to rely more heavily on imported foods. Diffey emphasizes that tuna species are highly sensitive to temperature changes, even as small as a tenth of a degree Celsius. This sensitivity means that the fish will likely move eastward, leaving Kiribati’s EEZ less productive.
The interdependence between Kiribati’s people and the ocean is profound. For generations, tuna has been central to the nation’s culture and way of life. Yet, as the climate warms, this relationship faces unprecedented strain. The loss of tuna stocks could not only destabilize the economy but also erode the cultural heritage tied to fishing. Abeta underscores that the country’s ability to sustain its economic model is contingent on the health of its marine resources. “The highest point above sea level in Kiribati—unless you climb a coconut tree—is just two metres,” she says. “No water, no land, no resources other than fish.”
While the threat to Kiribati’s economy is significant, the broader implications for the Pacific region are equally concerning. The movement of tuna stocks out of Kiribati’s EEZ could ripple through the entire Western Central Pacific Ocean, affecting neighboring nations that also depend on these fisheries. The Pacific Community has warned that Kiribati is likely to be among the most severely impacted, with its economic resilience tested by the dual challenges of climate change and population growth. The future of the nation’s economy may hinge on its ability to adapt to these changes, whether through new policies, conservation efforts, or diversification strategies that remain in early planning stages.
As the ocean continues to warm, the question is no longer if Kiribati’s economic foundation will be affected, but how quickly and severely. The country’s reliance on tuna fishing licenses means that any fluctuation in fish availability can trigger a cascade of economic consequences. For a nation with limited land and resources, the stakes are high. The challenge lies in balancing the need for immediate economic stability with the long-term preservation of the marine environment that sustains it. With the global tuna market already worth over $44 billion annually, the shift in fish populations could redefine trade dynamics across the Pacific, leaving Kiribati at a critical crossroads.