‘A million things could go wrong’ – Perils await US if it goes for Iran’s uranium

The notion of US forces launching a covert mission to capture Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile may seem improbable, yet it is a strategy being evaluated by President Donald Trump to curb the country’s nuclear ambitions. Such an endeavor would demand meticulous planning and face considerable risks, as highlighted by military analysts and former defense officials who shared insights with the BBC.

Experts note that executing this mission would require deploying ground troops and could span multiple days or weeks. Mick Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, described it as one of the “most complex special operations in history.” The operation’s success hinges on precision, given the strategic importance of the target and the challenges of operating in an underground facility.

“It’s so deeply buried it’s gonna be very hard for anybody,” Trump remarked during a CBS News interview. “It’s down there deep. So… it’s pretty safe. But, you know, we’ll make a determination.”

Other potential military actions under consideration include the US seizing control of Kharg Island to exert pressure on Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The administration is also leveraging the threat of further operations to push Iran toward diplomatic talks. However, Trump’s stance on whether a decisive victory is achievable without disrupting the uranium stockpile remains uncertain.

Iran currently holds around 440kg of uranium enriched to 60%, which is near the weapon-grade threshold. This material can be rapidly upgraded to 90% purity, according to senior US officials. Additionally, the country possesses approximately 1,000kg of uranium at 20% enrichment and 8,500kg at 3.6%, suitable for medical and research purposes.

Highly enriched uranium, crucial for bomb production, is believed to be primarily stored at Isfahan. This site was among three underground nuclear facilities struck during US-Israeli airstrikes last year. However, the exact distribution of the stockpile across other locations, such as Fordo and Natanz, remains unclear. Jason Campbell, a former defense official, emphasized the need for precise intelligence: “The ideal scenario is that you know exactly where it is. If it’s been dispersed to four different sites, then you’re talking about a whole different level of complexity.”

Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, stated that most of Iran’s enriched uranium is concentrated at Isfahan, with smaller amounts at Natanz. However, he noted that detailed assessments are pending due to the absence of inspectors since the 2025 US-Israeli air campaign. “There are many questions that we will only elucidate when we are able to go back,” Grossi explained.

Logistical hurdles persist even if the uranium’s location is confirmed. Satellite images from February showed entrances to Isfahan’s tunnel complex sealed, complicating access. While air strikes have effectively targeted Iran’s navy and missile infrastructure, securing its uranium requires ground forces. The US could deploy elements of the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East for this purpose.