Six Things to Watch Out for in the Scottish Election

The Electoral System’s Unique Structure

Six things to watch out – The Scottish Parliament election has concluded, with ballots now being counted to determine the victors. This year’s contest features a complex electoral framework, combining 73 constituencies that follow a first-past-the-post system with 56 additional regions that use proportional representation. This dual approach aims to balance local representation with broader party dynamics. However, the SNP’s aspiration for an outright majority of 65 seats hinges on a delicate calculation—securing enough constituencies while avoiding losses to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. The challenge lies in whether voters will split their support between challenger parties or align strategically to counter the SNP’s dominance.

Analysts note that the proportionality of the regional system could tip the scales if the SNP fails to capture a sufficient number of single-member seats. While the SNP has traditionally excelled in constituencies, the presence of 56 proportional seats adds an element of unpredictability. These regions could act as a safety net for smaller parties, potentially altering the final distribution of power. The outcome will depend heavily on how effectively the SNP can consolidate its base while fending off coordinated efforts from opposition parties.

SNP’s Ambitious Goal

At the heart of the election is John Swinney, the SNP leader, whose objective is to secure an outright majority. This would enable his party to bypass the need for coalition agreements and assert control over the Scottish government. Yet, the path to this goal is not guaranteed. The SNP must not only maintain its stronghold in traditional strongholds but also gain ground in areas where Labour or the Conservatives have historically performed well. This requires a strategic focus on both consolidating existing support and attracting new voters, particularly in the absence of a clear mandate for independence.

The SNP’s strategy is further complicated by the electoral system’s design. While a majority in constituencies is a critical first step, the proportional seats could still sway the final result. For instance, if the SNP loses even a single constituency, the Lib Dems or Greens might capitalise on that momentum. The key question remains: can the SNP overcome this potential vulnerability, or will the fractured vote among opposition parties create an opening for others?

Labour’s Strategic Dilemma

Labour’s Anas Sarwar has been the primary candidate for first minister, but his prospects have been overshadowed by the SNP’s dominance. The party’s struggles in Westminster have left it in a precarious position, with the Scottish electorate increasingly sceptical of its leadership. If the SNP falls short of a majority, Labour’s path to power will depend on a coalition of unionist parties—the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK. This coalition’s willingness to unite behind Sarwar could determine whether he secures the role, despite his party’s internal challenges.

Labour’s deputy leader, Jackie Baillie, holds the Dumbarton seat since 1999, a testament to her resilience against SNP challenges. However, with turnout expected to dip from the 63% peak of 2021, her ability to retain this seat is uncertain. The Greens, meanwhile, are targeting Edinburgh Central, where former leader Lorna Slater hopes to achieve a historic constituency win. If either Baillie or Robertson loses, their future in the parliament may hinge on the regional list, adding another layer of complexity to the results.

Turnout Trends and Voter Engagement

One of the most telling indicators of the election’s outcome will be voter turnout. Despite a record 4.2 million registered voters, there has been a noticeable decline in postal voting registrations, with a 150,000 drop from previous years. This suggests a potential shift in voting behavior, as postal ballots are often associated with higher participation rates. If turnout falls into the low to mid-50s range, as Prof Ailsa Henderson of the University of Edinburgh suggests, it could reflect a growing disillusionment with politics among Scottish voters.

“Polling indicates turnout might settle in the low to mid-50s, aligning more with Holyrood’s patterns in the 2000s,”

Prof Ailsa Henderson, University of Edinburgh.

This decline in engagement poses a risk for all parties, particularly those reliant on a strong base of supporters. The SNP’s ability to mobilise its base may be tested, as could Labour’s capacity to reinvigorate its appeal. The Greens, known for their environmental focus, and the Conservatives, with their traditional stronghold in certain areas, will also need to navigate these challenges. A lower turnout could amplify the impact of tactical voting, where voters strategically support less popular candidates to block their preferred rivals.

Key Seats in Peril

Several constituencies are under intense scrutiny, with the potential to reshape the political landscape. Jackie Baillie’s Dumbarton seat, which has been a Labour stronghold for over two decades, faces a renewed challenge from the SNP. Even though Baillie is likely to be re-elected through the party list, her continued leadership in this area will be a litmus test for Labour’s viability. Meanwhile, Angus Robertson, the SNP’s campaign manager and former culture secretary, is defending Edinburgh Central, a region now contested by the Greens. His position on the SNP list means a loss here could have long-term implications for the party’s leadership.

Other marginal seats, such as those in Glasgow and Edinburgh, will also be critical. These areas are often battlegrounds where the political tides can shift rapidly. The SNP’s success in these constituencies will be vital to their overall majority ambitions. Conversely, if Labour can regain ground in such seats, it could signal a broader realignment in Scottish politics. The stakes are high, as the results in these areas will influence not only the immediate outcome but also the long-term direction of the parliament.

Unionist Coalition and the Path to Power

If the SNP fails to secure a majority, the focus will shift to the potential formation of a unionist coalition. The Lib Dems, Tories, and Reform UK are all vying to prevent an SNP-led government, and their ability to unite will be crucial. Labour’s Anas Sarwar has already faced accusations of seeking a “grubby deal” with Reform UK’s Malcolm Offord, though he has since denied this. The possibility of such an alliance raises questions about whether Labour can maintain its independence without compromising its core values.

The Greens, on the other hand, have shown a willingness to work with the SNP if it means securing a pro-independence majority. Their co-leaders, Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay, have indicated that they would be content to see Swinney return to power if the SNP’s dominance is reinforced. This flexibility could be a deciding factor in a close race, as the Greens’ votes might tip the balance in favour of the SNP. However, if the Greens are unable to secure enough seats, the unionist parties may have to find a way to coalesce under Labour’s leadership.

The Road Ahead

As the results are announced, the narrative will pivot between the SNP’s pursuit of a majority and Labour’s quest for a coalition victory. The outcome will not only define the immediate political landscape but also set the stage for future debates on independence, fiscal policy, and the UK’s role in Scottish governance. Whether the SNP can achieve its goal or if Labour, with the support of unionist parties, will prevail, the election will serve as a microcosm of the broader political tensions at play in Scotland.