Thailand’s divisive ex-PM is out of jail, but is the Thaksin era over?
Thailand’s Ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra Frees, But Is His Era Truly Over?
Thailand s divisive ex PM is out – After two decades of living in self-imposed exile and eight months behind bars, the former Thai prime minister remains a dominant figure in the nation’s political discourse. His recent release from Klong Prem prison in Bangkok, following a one-year corruption conviction tied to his leadership from 2001 to 2006, has sparked renewed interest in his legacy. Thaksin, now 76, emerged from custody to a chorus of cheers from thousands of red-clad supporters who had gathered to celebrate his return. The scene at the prison gates reflected a deep emotional connection between the leader and his base, as family members, including his daughter and former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, welcomed him with open arms.
Thaksin’s political journey has always been marked by controversy. A brash, self-made billionaire, he rose to power in 2001 with a landslide victory that reshaped Thailand’s political landscape. His policies and charismatic leadership drew millions of followers, but also fierce criticism from royalists and establishment figures who viewed his influence as a threat to traditional power structures. Despite being ousted by a coup in 2006, his party, Pheu Thai, continued to dominate elections, only to face a second overthrow in 2014. The cycle of power and removal has defined his career, with the courts often acting as the arbiter in his political battles.
The latest chapter began in 2023 when Thaksin returned from exile, brokered through a “grand bargain” with the royalist establishment. This agreement allowed him to re-enter politics, though he promised to step back from active roles. However, his presence has proven difficult to contain. The Constitutional Court’s swift dismissal of his daughter’s leadership in early 2024, citing a leaked conversation with Cambodia’s Hun Sen, reignited tensions. This move, which came just days after the collapse of the Pheu Thai-led coalition, effectively sidelined Thaksin’s party, leaving it to secure only a third-place finish in the February general election. The result was a dramatic shift in power, with the reformist People’s Party and the nationalist Bhumjaithai party gaining momentum.
Thaksin’s return to Thailand was met with both hope and skepticism. Supporters, like Maysa Lombuarot, traveled over 700 kilometers to see him in person, bringing gifts such as lychees to symbolize their loyalty. “Today I brought him 20kg of lychees. I know he likes them. Now that he’s free, I want him to eat something good,” she told the BBC. Her hope for Thaksin’s continued involvement in politics underscores the deep-rooted belief among his followers that he remains the only viable leader capable of addressing the nation’s challenges. “I want him to help the country, to help the people who are suffering so much right now… only he can deliver what he promised,” she added, highlighting the emotional stakes of his political comeback.
A Legacy of Polarization
Thaksin’s influence has long been a polarizing force. His tenure as prime minister was characterized by sweeping reforms, including the creation of the Thai Public Health Insurance Scheme, which expanded access to healthcare for millions. Yet, his administration also faced accusations of authoritarianism, particularly over his use of the National Telecommunications Commission to control media and communication networks. These actions earned him both devoted followers and vocal critics, cementing his status as a figure who could unite or divide the country depending on perspective.
His political strategy has always been to leverage the masses. By framing his policies as grassroots initiatives, he built a loyal base that viewed him as a champion of the underprivileged. This approach contrasted sharply with the royalist elite, who saw him as an upstart challenging the country’s traditional hierarchy. The courts, often aligned with conservative factions, became his political adversaries, issuing rulings that targeted his allies and ultimately led to his imprisonment in September 2024. The Supreme Court’s decision to jail him was based on the argument that his six-month stay in a police hospital after returning to Thailand was a ruse to avoid serving his sentence, a claim that fueled debates about judicial independence.
While Thaksin’s supporters argue that his return could rejuvenate Pheu Thai, the party now faces a more complex political environment. The February election results revealed a stark reality: Pheu Thai’s once-unshakable dominance has waned, and its role as a junior coalition partner in the new government signals a diminished influence. Political analyst Ken Lohatepanont noted that Thaksin’s emergence from prison coincides with a “new political environment” where his party must navigate shifting alliances and internal challenges. “Pheu Thai has been sidelined as just a mid-sized party. You can never count Thaksin out, but the challenge he and his party face is of a different magnitude than those he has encountered before,” he said. The analyst’s words suggest that Thaksin’s ability to influence politics may depend on how effectively Pheu Thai can adapt to its current position.
Thaksin’s political survival has often hinged on his ability to outmaneuver opponents. The 2023 “grand bargain” allowed him to return to the country, but the collapse of that agreement just months later has raised questions about his future. Was this a calculated move by the conservative judiciary to weaken his party, or did Thaksin’s refusal to stay in the background provoke the courts into action? His continued involvement in politics, even as a party leader, has been a point of contention. While he claims to prioritize family time with his grandchildren, his presence in the public eye is unmistakable. The court’s dismissal of his daughter’s leadership on a seemingly trivial pretext has further complicated his position, leaving Pheu Thai to grapple with its next steps.
Despite the setbacks, Thaksin’s supporters remain steadfast in their belief that he is the key to Thailand’s future. His ability to rally crowds and articulate a vision for economic and social change has not faded with age. However, the political landscape has evolved, and the younger generation of leaders within Pheu Thai may now hold the balance of power. The question remains: can Thaksin’s legacy endure in an era where his party must redefine itself without his direct leadership? As the nation watches his next moves, the answer may shape Thailand’s political trajectory for years to come.
Thaksin’s release from jail marks the end of one chapter but the beginning of another. His long-standing feud with the royalist establishment continues, and the courts remain a critical battleground in his political career. Whether his era is truly over depends on how Pheu Thai navigates this new phase, balancing the demands of its base with the realities of a fragmented political landscape. For now, Thaksin’s shadow looms large, a reminder of the power he once wielded and the challenges that still await him.