If Plaid Cymru Wins in Wales, Independence Is Not the Immediate Goal

The Debate in Haverfordwest

At a BBC Wales Ask the Leaders event in Haverfordwest, a studio audience gathered to listen as Wales’ political parties pitched their visions. An audience member inquired about Welsh independence, prompting the presenter to ask if the party had ‘paused’ its ambitions. Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, responded:

“Do I sound as if I’ve paused on my ambition for Wales or my belief that this isn’t as good as things could be for Wales? No, my situation on this has been the same, life-long. It’s a question for the people of Wales. ‘How brave we want to be, how far we want to go.'”

Polls and Campaign Dynamics

Recent surveys highlight a split between two opposing factions—Plaid Cymru and Reform—in their views on Welsh sovereignty. Yet independence remains a secondary topic in the broader election discourse. Interestingly, pro-independence parties appear less vocal about the issue compared to their opponents. On the campaign trail, leaders are gauging whether the independence debate could either attract or deter voters.

Plaid’s Constitutional Stance

Plaid Cymru’s goal of Welsh independence is explicitly outlined in its constitution. However, party officials have consistently argued that this election is not solely about independence. The term ‘independence’ was absent from ap Iorwerth’s February speech and the April manifesto launch in Wrexham, despite the document hinting at future steps toward the goal. In contrast to 2021, when Adam Price pledged a referendum within five years, Plaid now plans to unveil a formal strategy only after taking office.

Labour’s Response and Concerns

Labour, which advocates for a stronger Wales within the UK, insists Plaid remains committed to independence. First Minister Eluned Morgan noted that “separatism is now very much on the agenda in our nation,” but she also emphasized that the cost-of-living crisis must be the priority. Anthony Slaughter, a Welsh leader, acknowledged support for independence may rise during political stagnation, yet he argued that focusing on it could divide voters and give Reform an advantage. The Greens, too, have avoided using the term ‘independence’ without prompting.

Next Steps and Strategic Shifts

Plaid’s strategy involves a National Commission, funded by £500,000 from the Welsh government’s £27bn budget, to establish the groundwork for eventual independence. This approach contrasts with the 2021 campaign, where the party’s leader promised a referendum within a set timeframe. With independence not dominating the campaign, all parties are framing their platforms around immediate concerns like healthcare, housing, and economic stability.