Rumen Radev looks set to win Bulgarian Parliamentary election

Bulgaria’s eighth general election in five years is expected to see Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria party emerge victorious, according to early exit polls. The results suggest his party could secure 37% of the vote, surpassing the 16% of GERB led by former Prime Minister Boiko Borisov. Several additional parties are anticipated to meet the 4% threshold required for parliamentary representation.

The election was triggered by the previous government’s attempt to pass a disputed budget in December, which sparked widespread protests. As president, Radev endorsed these demonstrations, positioning himself as a reformer against political stagnation. In his victory address, he stated:

“People rejected the self-satisfaction and arrogance of old parties and did not fall prey to lies and manipulation. I thank them for their trust.”

Radev, 62, is viewed as a pragmatic leader with pro-Russian leanings, often criticizing EU sanctions and advocating dialogue with the Kremlin. He has also expressed opposition to Bulgarian military support for Ukraine, focusing his campaign on domestic reforms and restoring political stability after years of fragile coalitions. After serving nine years as president, he stepped down in January to launch his new political movement.

Bulgaria’s arms industry has gained momentum since the start of the war, with the VMZ factory in Sopot playing a key role. Located two hours east of Sofia, the facility produces explosives and NATO-standard artillery shells. In October 2025, German firm Rheinmetall announced a €1bn partnership with VMZ to manufacture up to 100,000 shells annually, alongside a new gunpowder plant. Rheinmetall holds a 51% stake in the venture, part of broader European efforts to ramp up military production.

Despite his anti-Ukrainian military stance, Radev credited his role in welcoming Rheinmetall’s CEO to Bulgaria in March 2025. During a visit to the company’s German headquarters in August 2025, he remarked:

“Bulgaria is becoming part of the European defence ecosystem.”

Radev’s approach mirrors that of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who criticizes EU support for Ukraine but does not block private arms production. While his party’s victory is notable, it may not grant Progressive Bulgaria a majority, prompting Radev to seek coalition alliances. The country remains a key supplier of weapons to Ukraine via third-party nations, notably Romania.