Why did US and Israel attack Iran and how long could the war last?

The Middle East conflict has intensified following US and Israel’s strikes on Iran, which resulted in the death of its supreme leader on 28 February. Iran retaliated by launching attacks on Israeli and US-backed nations in the Gulf, escalating hostilities that now include Lebanon. Casualties and damage have risen across all fronts, with the region’s stability increasingly threatened.

Targeted Infrastructure and Leadership

Initial US and Israeli strikes focused on Iran’s missile capabilities, military installations, and key figures in Tehran. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had governed Iran since 1989, was among those killed during the first wave of attacks. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was announced as the new leader on 8 March. Other high-ranking targets included Ali Larijani, Esmail Khatib, and Gholamreza Soleimani, all linked to Iran’s security and paramilitary forces.

Israel claimed to have neutralized these leaders through air strikes, while also hitting sites connected to Iran’s nuclear program—seen as peaceful by Tehran—and oil and gas facilities. Kharg Island, a critical oil hub, and South Pars, a major gas field, were among the locations struck. On 4 March, a US submarine sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka, killing at least 87 individuals.

Regional Escalation and Casualties

Iran’s counterattacks extended to neighboring countries, with strikes reported in Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Thirteen US service members were confirmed dead, while civilian casualties grew across the Gulf. HRANA, a US-based organization, reported 3,530 deaths in Iran since the conflict began, including 1,606 civilians—244 of whom were children. The US noted 19 fatalities in Israel from missile fire, though the exact cause remains under review.

“The targeting of civilians and of countries not directly involved in the conflict is a clear violation of international norms,” stated a US official, highlighting concerns over the broad scope of attacks.

Iran accused the US and Israel of striking a girls’ school near an IRGC base in southern Iran, claiming 168 people—over 110 children—were killed. The US is investigating the incident, while Israel denied any operations in the area. Video analysis by BBC Verify suggested a US Tomahawk missile hit the site. Meanwhile, a US F-15 jet was shot down over western Iran on 3 April, with the pilot rescued and a second crew member recovered days later.

Additional strikes targeted oil and gas infrastructure, as well as civilian sites. In northern Iraq, a French soldier died from a drone attack at a Kurdish military base. The Iraqi Ministry of Defence reported seven soldiers killed in an airstrike in Anbar province on 25 March, though the attacker was not identified. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) also noted 27 of its members were killed. In the Israeli-occupied West Bank, four Palestinian women were killed in a beauty salon by an Iranian missile. Turkey reported its NATO defenses downed three Iranian missiles, while Azerbaijan blamed Iran for an attack on its airport.

The conflict shows no signs of slowing, with both sides accusing each other of aggression. As of 29 March, the US and Israel continue to assess the impact of their strikes, while Iran presses forward with its campaign of missile and drone attacks. The global reach of this war now includes allies and adversaries alike, raising questions about its duration and consequences.