Is a ‘Super El Niño’ on the Way and How Will It Affect the UK?

Climate scientists anticipate a shift in global weather patterns later this year, potentially triggered by an upcoming El Niño event. This phenomenon could elevate winter temperatures in the UK by 0.2C in 2026 and 2027. While El Niño’s effects vary by region and season, its influence on the UK is notably linked to increased likelihood of colder spells during the colder months.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Cycle

El Niño and La Niña are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific. The cooler phase, La Niña, has dominated since December 2024, contributing to slightly lower global temperatures compared to the previous year. However, this phase is nearing its conclusion, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).

“This current La Niña is close to its end,” the BoM noted.

Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by the next month, with El Niño possibly emerging between June and August. The Relative Niño 3.4 Index, which tracks central Pacific El Niño conditions, indicates sustained monthly values above +0.8C are associated with the phenomenon, while values below −0.8C suggest La Niña.

Historical Context and Future Projections

Strong El Niño events are uncommon, yet they can have significant global consequences. The last notable instance was during 2015-16, which contributed to 2016 being the hottest year on record at the time. This record was later surpassed by 2023, 2024, and 2025. The Climate Prediction Center highlights that a strong El Niño, defined as sea surface temperatures +1.5C above the long-term average, has a one in three probability between October and December this year.

While the exact strength of the upcoming El Niño remains uncertain, there are indications it could become a “Super El Niño.” Such events are linked to extreme weather, including droughts in Australia and Indonesia, as well as floods in Peru and Ecuador. India and the southwestern United States may also experience altered monsoon patterns and increased rainfall, respectively.

UK’s Weather and the Met Office Insight

For the UK, the influence of ENSO is less immediate and often delayed. The Met Office explains that El Niño years can raise the risk of colder winters in the region. Despite the global warming effect, the relationship between ENSO and climate change is not yet fully understood. Some research suggests both strong El Niño and La Niña events may be becoming more frequent and intense over time.

“El Niño years are one factor that can increase the risk of colder winters in the UK,” stated the Met Office.