Big punch in the face – could Arsenal really blow title from here?

Arsenal’s recent struggles have raised concerns about their ability to hold onto a top position in the Premier League. After securing the league lead following 32 matches, the Gunners have now suffered a setback, losing three of their last four games. This has reignited the possibility of Manchester City reclaiming the title race. However, this scenario is not unprecedented for Arsenal, who have faced similar challenges in the past.

Their current predicament is unique, though. Standing nine points clear of the competition after 32 games, the team has yet to clinch the league. No Premier League side has ever been in such a commanding position and then lost the title. Could Mikel Arteta’s squad be the first to achieve this?

With Manchester City on a two-match draw streak, and Arsenal’s recent 2-1 loss to Bournemouth, the momentum has shifted. “They could blow it playing like that,” remarked Alan Shearer, a pundit on Saturday’s Match of the Day. “They were poor in every department. No energy, flat – they looked very, very nervous.”

“The whole place seemed nervous. As they haven’t won it for so long I perhaps understand, but they have to get through that or they’re going to miss out.”

Arteta described the defeat as “a big punch to the face” and a “painful day.” He told BBC Match of the Day: “That’s what I said to the boys – and now it’s about how we react to that.” The reaction will be critical, as their next league game against Manchester City could decide the title.

Currently, Arsenal are nine points ahead, but with six matches remaining, the gap might narrow. If City win their upcoming games, including a potential clash against Chelsea on Sunday, the race will become more competitive. A victory for City in their game in hand on 22 April could further challenge Arsenal’s lead.

Historically, Arsenal have been top after 32 games on four occasions, winning the title in 2001-02 and 2003-04, and finishing second in 2002-03 and 2022-23. They were only five points ahead of City in 2022-23, which could make this year’s situation more precarious. Data analysts Opta still give Arsenal a 93.62% chance of winning the title, based on simulations of their remaining fixtures.

Despite the statistical edge, Arsenal’s recent performance has been lackluster. Their 53rd game of the season has seen three consecutive losses across competitions, including the Carabao Cup final and FA Cup quarter-finals. The defeat to Bournemouth highlighted their fatigue, with a fresh-looking Bournemouth side capitalizing on their jaded defense.

Injuries have also played a role, as Arsenal were missing key players like Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, and Jurrien Timber. Myles Lewis-Skelly made his second start of the season at left-back, while Riccardo Calafiori was unavailable. Shearer noted that a midweek win in Lisbon might have provided momentum after the cup setbacks, but the current display offered little confidence.

“I thought the result in Lisbon in midweek would have helped them massively, just to get a little bit of momentum and confidence after the two cup defeats,” added Shearer. “But there was nothing I saw today that would give me confidence that they’re going to go and win the league.”

The atmosphere at Emirates Stadium reflected the team’s nerves, with loose passes met by groans from the crowd. Arteta, however, believes the pressure is manageable. “I don’t think there is pressure,” he said. “We have been coping with a lot of pressure since the beginning of the season.”