Hungarians decide whether to end 16 years of Orbán rule and elect rival

On Sunday, Hungarians cast their ballots in a pivotal election that could signal the end of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s 16-year leadership and reshape political dynamics across Europe, the US, and Russia. Polls indicate strong support for Péter Magyar, the leader of a newly formed opposition party, but Orbán remains undeterred, vowing a decisive win. His speech to thousands of supporters in Budapest’s Castle Hill square on Saturday underscored his resolve: “We are going to achieve such a victory that will surprise everyone, perhaps even ourselves.”

Vote timing and early results

Ballots will be counted from 06:00 to 19:00 local time (04:00-17:00 GMT), with initial results emerging in the evening. Orbán intensified his campaign rhetoric, accusing the opposition of “stop at nothing to seize power,” while Magyar urged voters to resist “Fidesz pressure and blackmail.”

Political shifts and policy promises

Magyar’s Tisza party aims to dismantle the “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy” that the European Parliament has criticized, advocating for a constitutional reset and improved ties with the EU. His rallies drew larger crowds in Debrecen than Orbán’s in Budapest, highlighting growing public discontent. Meanwhile, Orbán continues to enjoy backing from Donald Trump, who praised him as a “true friend, fighter, and WINNER” and encouraged Hungarians to vote for him.

We don’t give our children, we don’t give our weapons and we don’t give our money,” Orbán declared to supporters, framing his campaign around resistance to Brussels and Ukraine policies. The crowd echoed his message, chanting “we won’t let that happen.”

Challenges and public sentiment

Despite economic struggles and a series of scandals—such as Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó’s pre- and post-summit conversations with Russia—Orbán has maintained a stronghold. Analysts at Budapest’s Political Capital think tank suggest that Magyar’s Tisza party is poised for a “comfortable, absolute majority,” though a two-thirds supermajority may still be within reach. The election could mark a turning point in Hungary’s political landscape.

Most likely scenario is that Tisza will secure a comfortable majority, but not a two-thirds one. However, you can’t rule out a supermajority either,” said election specialist Róbert László.

Electoral system and strategic challenges

Hungary’s complex voting structure has been a point of contention. Orbán admitted the system favors his party, yet analysts highlight 22 “battleground seats” where Fidesz’s victory is uncertain. Nézőpont Institute’s Ágoston Mráz notes that these constituencies could determine the outcome. However, the delayed counting of 5% of votes in certain regions may prolong the final tally, adding uncertainty to the race.

Magyar’s success hinges on key cities like Györ, Hungary’s sixth-largest, located near the Slovak border. Winning there would weaken Fidesz’s grip, though Orbán’s influence in rural areas remains strong. As the election approaches, signs of public disillusionment with the ruling party grow, with figures from police, military, and business sectors publicly criticizing Fidesz’s governance.