The insider trading suspicions looming over Trump’s presidency

During Donald Trump’s second presidential term, market participants have been placing substantial bets shortly before key announcements from the administration. The BBC analyzed trade volume trends across multiple financial markets and aligned them with major statements from the president. A recurring pattern emerged, showing sharp increases in trading activity just hours—sometimes minutes—before public disclosures, such as social media posts or media interviews. While some experts suggest this aligns with illegal insider trading, others argue the situation is more nuanced, as certain traders have developed the ability to predict presidential interventions with remarkable accuracy.

Oil market anomalies

One of the earliest notable cases involved the oil futures market. Just nine days into the US-Israel conflict with Iran, Trump told CBS News in a phone call that the war had reached a “very complete, pretty much” stage. The public first learned of this statement at 15:16 Eastern Time (19:16 GMT) when the reporter shared the news on X. Oil traders, however, had already begun reacting to the anticipated conclusion of the conflict by selling oil contracts, causing prices to drop by roughly 25%. Market data reveals a significant spike in bets predicting a decline in oil prices at 18:29 GMT—47 minutes prior to the report’s release.

“The trades appeared ‘abnormal, for sure,’ said an oil analyst to the BBC at the time.”

Another instance occurred on March 23rd, when Trump posted on Truth Social that Washington had engaged in “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” with Tehran toward a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION” of hostilities. This statement caught both diplomats and traders off guard, prompting an immediate rise in stock markets and a sharp fall in US oil prices. A week prior, market data showed an unusual surge in bets favoring a drop in oil prices, with trading volume hitting 10,000 contracts per minute after 18:00 BST. Earlier in the day, the pace had been in the hundreds. Some traders wagered over $2 million on the market rebounding that day, despite seven consecutive days of losses.

Tariff announcements and market swings

On April 2nd, Trump declared “Liberation Day,” unveiling sweeping tariffs on goods from nearly every country. Global stock markets tumbled in response. Yet, when he later announced a 90-day “pause” on the levies, excluding China, the S&P 500 index surged by 9.5%—one of its largest single-day gains since World War II. The BBC noted that an unusual concentration of bets occurred on a fund tracking the S&P 500 just before the pause announcement, with traders anticipating the positive impact on stock prices.

Investigations and responses

Senior Democrats in the US Senate raised concerns about potential insider trading, urging the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to probe whether presidential statements benefited insiders and allies. When the BBC inquired about these claims, an SEC spokesperson declined to comment. The White House also did not respond to the BBC’s questions regarding the unusual trading patterns observed in the report.

Online prediction markets under scrutiny

The expansion of digital prediction platforms has intensified scrutiny. Blockchain-based services like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to bet on events ranging from weather forecasts to US foreign policy outcomes. Trump Jr. holds an investment stake in Polymarket and serves on its advisory board. He also acts as a strategic advisor to Kalshi and was contacted by the BBC for comment. In December 2025, a user named Burdensome-Mix created an account on Polymarket, placing its first bet on Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro being ousted by January 2026.