Henry Zeffman: What does Keir Starmer do next after Andy Burnham’s Makerfield win?
Henry Zeffman: What does Keir Starmer do next after Andy Burnham’s Makerfield win?
Henry Zeffman – Among the murmurs of discontent echoing through Labour’s corridors, phrases like “delusional,” “a bit deluded,” and “utterly deluded” have become commonplace. These critiques are not reserved for a single faction but ripple across the party, from seasoned MPs to younger members, and from backbenchers to senior ministers. The catalyst for this unrest? Andy Burnham’s decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election, which has shifted the balance of power within the Labour Party. The focus is squarely on Sir Keir Starmer, the leader who, just two years prior, had led Labour back to government after a 14-year absence, and who now faces a mounting challenge from within his own ranks.
Starmer’s supporters remain resolute, but the tide of sentiment appears to be turning. The recent by-election, won by Burnham with a clear majority, has reignited debates about the direction of the party. For some, it signals a reckoning—a moment when the public’s patience with Starmer’s leadership is waning. Yet, for his allies, the result is a sign of strength, reinforcing their belief that Burnham’s path to Downing Street is inevitable. The unity among Labour MPs is striking, despite their differing views on Starmer’s leadership. This collective determination suggests that the party may soon face a critical decision: whether to retain Starmer or hand over the reins to Burnham.
“When the Tories lost the last election, Britons were most likely to see them as ‘only interested in themselves’, ‘dishonest’ and ‘divided,’” a document circulated among Starmer’s supporters notes. “We cannot allow ourselves to be tarnished in the same way.”
The notion of a “coronation” for Burnham has taken root in political circles, implying a smooth transition to leadership without the need for a formal contest. In this scenario, Burnham would emerge as the unopposed candidate, securing the necessary 81 MPs’ backing and being elected by acclamation. This would mirror the 2007 rise of Gordon Brown, who became Labour leader and prime minister with minimal opposition. However, the term “coronation” is not without its complications. Wes Streeting, the former health secretary who resigned last month in protest of Starmer’s leadership, has claimed to have the support of 81 MPs required to trigger a contest. His insistence raises questions about the clarity of the party’s next steps.
Streeting’s departure has left a mark, but his presence remains a wildcard. While some colleagues are skeptical of his claims, he has grown more assertive, emphasizing his readiness to challenge Starmer. This creates a tension within the party: the urgency to stabilize leadership versus the momentum of Burnham’s victory. The prime minister’s camp, however, is not conceding easily. Starmer has repeatedly stated his intention to remain a candidate in the upcoming leadership election, ensuring that the process will not bypass the membership’s vote. His decision to stay in the race guarantees that Labour members will have a say, complicating the idea of a seamless “coronation.”
The rules of the game are clear. As the current leader, Starmer is automatically on the ballot, even if he doesn’t secure the 81 MPs’ endorsement. This means that a leadership election is now a certainty, not a possibility. The challenge lies in how quickly the process unfolds and whether Starmer can retain his position. His warnings against internal division are now being tested, as the party grapples with the implications of Burnham’s victory. “A leadership election would ‘tear apart our party and our movement,’” Starmer told Labour staff this lunchtime, underscoring his belief that the contest could fracture the party’s cohesion.
Yet, the reality is that Starmer’s leadership has already sparked significant turmoil. The by-election result is a stark reminder of the public’s growing impatience with the current trajectory. Some argue that the chaos within Labour has eroded its credibility, much like the Tory party’s division did in the past. Burnham’s win, they claim, is a vote of confidence in a more stable alternative. But Starmer’s supporters counter that Burnham’s vision for the party is not as distinct as it appears, and that the election is a necessary step to reaffirm Labour’s unity.
The key question hanging over the next few days is whether Starmer still commands the majority of his colleagues’ confidence. His role as prime minister adds another layer of complexity. To remain in office, he must maintain the support of a majority of MPs, a condition that became crucial in 2022 when Boris Johnson’s government collapsed due to a lack of parliamentary backing. Starmer’s survival now depends on proving that his leadership is not just a personal interest but a unifying force for the party. The stakes are high, as the outcome will shape Labour’s future for years to come.
Despite the political noise, one fact remains undisputed: Burnham’s by-election victory has injected fresh energy into the leadership race. The public’s backing for his campaign suggests a desire for change, yet it also raises the question of whether this support translates into a broader mandate for his leadership. Starmer, meanwhile, is positioning himself as the anchor of Labour’s stability, even as his opponents push for a more immediate transition. The next phase of the story will reveal whether the party can navigate this internal conflict without fracturing its core identity.
In the end, the leadership contest may not just be a battle for power but a test of Labour’s ability to reconcile its diverse factions. Starmer’s commitment to the process ensures that the membership’s voice will be heard, even if the path to victory is uncertain. For Burnham, the challenge is to solidify his support and demonstrate that he can lead the party through the upcoming general election. And for Streeting, the opportunity to play a pivotal role in the outcome remains open, though he may need to align with Burnham’s candidacy to avoid further division.
The Makerfield result is more than a political win—it’s a reflection of the party’s internal dynamics and the public’s growing expectations. As Labour prepares for the next stage, the focus will be on whether Starmer’s leadership can withstand the test of time or if Burnham’s rise signals a new era for the party. Whatever the outcome, the road ahead will be shaped by the choices made in the coming days.