Democrats Were Already Scrambling in California’s Governor Race. Then Swalwell Dropped Out

California’s 2026 gubernatorial contest had already become a battleground for the Democratic Party, with internal challenges complicating their path to victory. Factors like an overabundance of contenders, limited public recognition, and voter disengagement posed significant hurdles. However, the situation took a dramatic turn when Representative Eric Swalwell, the party’s frontrunner, withdrew from the race amid allegations of sexual assault and misconduct, despite his insistence that the claims were unfounded.

Swalwell’s exit intensified the Democrats’ turmoil, raising fears of a potential Republican sweep in a state traditionally aligned with the party. “A historic mistake could occur if Democrats fail to unite,” remarked Eric Schickler, a political science professor at UC Berkeley. The scandal erupted after the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN published reports detailing multiple women’s accounts of Swalwell’s behavior, prompting his key supporters to distance themselves. On Monday, he announced his congressional resignation shortly after the House Ethics Committee launched an investigation into his conduct.

Swalwell acknowledged “judgment errors” in his past but pledged to counter “serious, false allegations.” The Democratic dilemma, however, predated the scandal. Governor Gavin Newsom, who has led the state since 2019, is barred from seeking re-election due to term limits. Other prominent Democrats, including former Vice-President Kamala Harris, also opted not to run. This left eight lesser-known candidates struggling to make an impact in California’s high-stakes media landscape.

A March poll by the University of California Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies triggered a seismic shift, revealing Republican candidates were capturing more voter support than Democrats. With a crowded field, the Democratic base fractured, creating uncertainty. The state’s primary system, which allows the top two vote-getters to face each other in the general election regardless of party affiliation, now threatens to exclude Democrats entirely. A June result with no Democratic nominees could mark the first time since 2011 a Republican leads the state, ending a long streak of Democratic governance.

The outcome carries national significance, as California’s policies on environmental issues, consumer rights, and technology often influence regulations elsewhere. Swalwell had begun gaining momentum, carving out a lead in the Democratic race. Yet his departure left a void, making it unclear which candidate could consolidate his support. “This is the most chaotic race I’ve seen in California,” noted Garry South, a seasoned Democratic strategist. “The field was already muddled, even with Swalwell’s slight advantage. Now, it’s a complete mess.”

Among those vying to fill the gap, former Congresswoman Katie Porter and billionaire climate advocate Tom Steyer stand out. Porter, however, has faced scrutiny over past reports of staff mistreatment, while Steyer’s $89m in campaign ads have yet to translate into strong poll numbers. Despite these challenges, both are distancing themselves from other Democratic hopefuls, including Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, Tony Thurmond, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Betty Yee. Still, none possesses the star power needed to galvanize voters, as many struggle to differentiate between Democratic candidates and their platforms.

“I don’t recognize half the people running,” said Joko Tamura, a 58-year-old Santa Monica resident who identifies as a Democrat. “Homelessness and high living costs are my main concerns, but I’m not sure which candidate addresses them best.” With the race in disarray, the Democratic Party faces an uphill battle to maintain its foothold in a state once considered a sure thing.