Arsenal Have Struggled to Score Goals from Open Play This Season

This season, Arsenal have faced challenges in converting open play opportunities into goals, with Mikel Arteta noting the league’s evolution. Following Manchester City’s 1-0 victory over Burnley on Wednesday, the Gunners have been leapfrogged in the title race, ending their 209-day stint at the top of the table. Both teams now share 70 points, with a goal difference of +37, and five games remaining. City’s higher goal tally has secured their lead, raising questions about Arsenal’s approach as the season nears its climax.

Goal Difference Decides the Title?

Arteta emphasized that “everything is still to play for,” but analysts suggest the Gunners may need to shift their strategy. The team has won only six of their last 13 league matches, and two consecutive losses to Bournemouth and City have shifted momentum to Pep Guardiola’s side. Despite this, Rooney, who recalls Manchester United’s 2011-12 campaign, argues Arsenal could still emerge victorious if they adjust their tactics.

“Keep trying to score because it might be decided on goal difference,” said Sir Alex Ferguson, a sentiment Rooney echoes. “At the time you’re thinking ‘it’s never going to go to goal difference’ but it did that one time.”

Kai Havertz, a favored player of Arteta, started in place of Viktor Gyokeres against City. While the German displayed skill in maintaining possession and linking the attack, his failure to capitalize on key chances highlighted a recurring issue. Arsenal’s reliance on single-goal victories—10 this season—has raised concerns, as nearly half their wins have come by the narrowest margins. This mirrors Leicester’s 2016 campaign, where a similar percentage of wins were decided by one goal.

Rooney, who led United to titles with 57% of wins coming by a single goal in 2008-09 and 2012-13, believes Arsenal’s current mindset is a hurdle. “I’d still have them as slight favorites,” he said, “but they need to change that mindset and go for wins by three or four goals.”

Historical Context and Scoring Trends

With an average of 1.91 goals per game, Arsenal are on track to become the first Premier League champions to score fewer than two goals on average since Leicester’s 1.79 in 2015-16. If they secure the title, their open-play goal count—just 63 in 33 games—would also set a historic low, as only 60% of their goals have come from such situations. The average goal difference for a title-winning team is +50, yet Arsenal’s +37 could match Leicester’s 2016 record of +32 if they maintain their current pace.

Previously, Liverpool in 2019-20 achieved a title win with 14 narrow victories, but Arsenal’s 10 single-goal wins this season may not be enough. Sergio Aguero’s last-minute goal against QPR in 2011-12, which cost United the title, serves as a cautionary tale. Can Arsenal replicate their current success with a different approach, or will their cautious style prove decisive?