Libya Oscillates Between Cooperation and Illusion

For the first time, Libya’s political factions have joined forces in the Flintlock exercise, a multinational military training event led by the United States. This development signals a potential shift toward unity, though its true implications remain uncertain. The exercise, set to conclude in April, involves troops from nearly 30 nations, emphasizing counterterrorism efforts and fostering international collaboration to reinforce regional security.

The exercise’s significance lies in its location and participants. With Libya divided since 2014 into two competing governments—the UN-backed Government of National Unity in Tripoli and the Government of National Stability in Tobruk, supported by General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army—this marked participation from both sides represents a rare moment of convergence. “This is a notable political gesture,” said Hager Ali, a political scientist at the GIGA Institute in Hamburg. “It shows that cooperation, at least on a tactical level, is achievable.”

Flintlock follows a recognized US military framework, yet its current setup in Libya and the inclusion of both factions distinguish it from past iterations. “Hosting the exercise in Libya and having representatives from both regions is a unique factor,” Ali added. She highlighted that the move aligns with broader efforts to unify Libya’s fractured armed forces since the 2011 ousting of Muammar Gaddafi.

Michael Bauer of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Tunis echoed this view, noting that the visible reconciliation between rival factions is a “rare, visible sign of rapprochement.” However, he cautioned that such efforts are still under external influence, particularly from the US. “Cooperation is possible operationally, but political resolution remains elusive,” he remarked.

The country’s governance is still fragmented, according to the Bertelsmann Transformation Index 2026. “Libya lacks a cohesive government structure with clear separation of powers,” the report stated. This division between competing authorities, armed groups, and regional actors creates an environment where democratic governance is difficult to establish.

Recent steps toward unity include the adoption of a joint national budget, which North Africa expert Bauer called a “tangible sign of institutional rapprochement.” Yet, he warned against overestimating progress. “This is a single step in a longer process,” said Hager Ali, noting that the budget may help shift economic power away from figures like General Haftar, whose influence is deeply rooted in the country’s financial systems.

Analysts stress that the US-led exercise has broader strategic goals. Beyond Libya, it targets counterterrorism in the Sahel, the proliferation of weapons due to conflicts like Sudan’s, and the challenge of Russian influence. “The US is actively countering Moscow’s presence in eastern Libya,” Ali observed. “This region has become a focal point for global powers vying for control.”

Libya’s geographical position and oil reserves have made it a battleground for international competition. The Middle East Institute in Washington recently noted that “Libya’s oil production, currently sustained by informal agreements, is more critical than ever.” While this could be a turning point, the nation’s political landscape remains volatile, with power and resource distribution still contested among opposing groups. “Formal legal mechanisms alone may not resolve these tensions,” the MEI analysis concluded. Isolated signs of cooperation, though promising, may not be enough to sustain long-term stability.